Mask wearing should be continue.

[Moderator2]

Then I'm afraid you are dangerously incorrect, dangerous because you are helping to spread misinformation which in this later case simply doesn’t stand up to any sensible analysis.

I think this thread has run its course, it’s now being used for an alternative agenda, and so it’s locked.

If I see any new covid related threads then I am likely to simply delete them unless I am convinced that a reasoned and rational debate will follow, unlike a lot of what I have seen in the latter part of this thread.

[JK0]

So, do you understand that since a very large number of high risk people have been vaccinated, and the vaccines are not 100% effective, then a proportion of those high risk people will remain at risk. These are the people who end up in hospital, and sadly some don’t survive.

No. I think Del is right.

[Moderator2]

That video has nothing at all to do with wearing masks, but I’ll let that go for now.

The mathematics presented in the video are nonsense simply because they totally ignore demographics.

Here’s paragraph 56 in full extracted from the modelling report linked in post #76;

“56. This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in
people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection
waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines. This is because vaccine uptake
has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds).
There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x
10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected
against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake
being so high.”

So, do you understand that since a very large number of high risk people have been vaccinated, and the vaccines are not 100% effective, then a proportion of those high risk people will remain at risk. These are the people who end up in hospital, and sadly some don’t survive.

[JK0]

[ram]

Continue to wear a mask
Watch video as Comedy or the truth, which ever way you swing

[Moderator2]

I find it disappointing that RAM cherry-picks information in the way he does, out of context, distorted by his own interpretation, and excluding important points made by the authors i.e. the bold sentence from paragraph 56;

“This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake
being so high.”

That model output from last March doesn’t suggest anywhere that vaccination is generally ineffective.

Clearly the person in RAM’s first posted image struggled to understand also.

I have no idea what that second image is meant to be pointing out or where it’s from?

[Ted.E.Bear]

If 95% of people are vaccinated, which is what they modelled, then it is no surprise that most people who become ill would have been vaccinated. (i.e. the 5% of unvaccinated people would make up 30-40% of the hospitalised and dying).

It clearly isn't proof that vaccines are no good, unless you don't have even a basic understanding of maths. (Or, don't care about the maths and just want any excuse to make a point).

And the vaccines, thankfully, appear to be working better than those models predicted at preventing hospitilisations and deaths.

[ram]

To Mask or Vax.

Just imparting some official government information ( social media screen dump first )
Below is Not my post.

covid-2-wave.jpg

32.
The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs55and 56.

Gov site = https://www.gov.uk/government/public...-31-march-2021

Also ------

[ram]

For you younguns, ere is a mangle - with attachments.

OldMangle.jpg

[K-21]

Sorry to mention the following, but saw it on the internet.

"I see these people ( men ) driving alone in a car wearing a mask.
Do they wear a condom, alone in bed - just in case."

I have'nt laughed so much since Grandma caught her tits in the mangle.

[jpkeates]

Compared with 34,000 at the peak in January.

If the rate of hospitalisations is increasing exponentially (which isn't a given), we'll hit that number by the end of August (give or take a couple of thousand).

[jpkeates]

They do for England at least, every day, here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ital-activity/

On 6th July, there were 1,998 people in hospital with Covid (how they define that is on that page).
Which is worrying, because on June 6th, there were 807.

3,894 beds occupied yesterday (20th) which is a double in a fortnight.
If the growth is exponential, not just steep, September is going to be "interesting".

[ram]

It's hard to be absolute about these things.

Thanks for your comments. Good arguments.

[jpkeates]

Since the Aids epidemic, I've been careful about cause of death.
So many people with Aids "died" of Pneumonia, which was the thing that finally killed them, rather than Aids, which is why they caught Pneumonia.
It's why Heart Failure is such a common killer.

But, again, using Aids as an example, simply deciding that Covid was the single or even the most important reason for death has to be considered quite carefully.
I know two people who died after catching Covid, and both would probably not have died exactly when they did without it.
But I'm not at all sure either would have survived pre-existing conditions for another 12 months either.

It's hard to be absolute about these things.
If they'd been hit by a car and killed, their deaths would have been legitimately recorded as traffic deaths, so it would be consistent to think of them as casualties of Covid, but we're trying to build new policies.
We have well established views and rules relating to vehicles, so being killed by a car should be avoidable.
We don't have the same for Covid, so the complexities of people's deaths shouldn't be ignored at this point.

Taking an extreme view, just to make a point.
If almost all of the deaths from Covid were people who would probably have died within 12 months anyway and long covid isn't a big deal (neither of which I believe personally), our response to the pandemic might be considerably diffferent.
You'd have some hard decisions, for example, about whether the negative effects on children's education and people's jobs was necessary when balanced against some quite ill people losing a few month's of life.

[Macromia]

But we did not wear masks for the deadly pneumonia.and between 1 January and 31 August 2020 (ons.gov.uk )
Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19

Yet another example of you misrepresenting facts.

This is likely a good illustration of how confirmation bias and a closed-mind attitude lead people to accept conspiracy theories rather than making the effort to actually understand what the facts mean.

It is true that the ONS say that 'influenza and pneumonia' were mentioned on more death certificates between January and August 2020 than Covid-19, but they very clearly state that Covid-19 was given as the underlying cause of death for well over 3x as many deaths during that period.

It is a fact that most severe respiratory infections will often lead to pneumonia as a secondary infection - pneumonia that would often not have been contracted without the initial infection.

On this subject you aren't being honest with yourself, let alone anyone else.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nd31august2020