Mask wearing should be continue.

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    #16
    Originally posted by boletus View Post
    Define "anywhere".
    Off the top of my head, anywhere inside that isn't your own home where there are people who are not normally resident with you.
    Inside any vehicle or means of transport where there are people who are not normally resident with you.
    Then there should be exemptions for buildings or rooms where the ventilations meets certain standards (complete air exchange every 10 minutes etc).

    And the same anywhere outside smaller than 2sqm per person?

    Covis is spread in the air, so ventilation and masks are critical.
    When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
    Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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      #17
      Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
      When someone is vulnerable (all those people who had to shield, for example), vaccination doesn't necessarily have the same impact on hospitalisation (there's no data on that, so it's an unknown), so for a number of people, opening up and suggesting people make their own judgements, is disproportionately risky.
      Wearing your own mask is really helpful, wearing your own mask with everyone else wearing their own is close to risk free.
      How do people make their own decisions about wearing a mask when they don't know everyone else's level of risk?
      Unpalatable as it may be, it's going to be the other way round. Those disproportionately at risk will be the one's having to make their own difficult decisions. This situation couldn't be carried on indefinitely.

      Originally posted by jpkeates View Post

      And we currently have a population awash with the virus, albeit not being hospitalised by it - many of whom are young fit people.
      That's the perfect environment for creating variant strains of a virus.
      It's also a perfect environment for herd immunity.

      Originally posted by jpkeates View Post

      Opening up early means we'll be locked down again later on.
      I doubt it, not on a nationwide scale anyway.


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        #18
        Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
        Off the top of my head, anywhere inside that isn't your own home where there are people who are not normally resident with you.

        And the same anywhere outside smaller than 2sqm per person
        We're going to have disagree on that, not that it's going to happen anyway.

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          #19
          Originally posted by boletus View Post
          We're going to have disagree on that, not that it's going to happen anyway.
          I don't see that happening either.

          I just think that until we've vaccinated the planet, we're going to get outbreaks of successively worse variants of the disease.
          You have to have herd immunity of the entire herd, not just counties, unless you stop international travel.

          Unpalatable as it may be, it's going to be the other way round. Those disproportionately at risk will be the one's having to make their own difficult decisions. This situation couldn't be carried on indefinitely
          I suspect that there are more people at risk than people who refuse to wear masks.
          And they're definitely easier to identify.
          When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
          Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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            #20
            Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
            They do for England at least, every day, here - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ital-activity/

            On 6th July, there were 1,998 people in hospital with Covid (how they define that is on that page).
            Which is worrying, because on June 6th, there were 807.
            We're already back at the level of early April, when it was "wrong" to end the lockdown.

            The number of new admissions on those dates is 383 (July) and 113 (June).
            Update.

            The number in hospital with Covid was 2352 on Friday.
            That's a minimum of 356 more people needing a hospital bed in three days*.

            Over the same period the number needing ventilators went up by 40 (to 393)*.

            *Given that about 90 people (precise figures not yet available) died in the same period and no longer needed a bed or a ventilator.
            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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              #21
              Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
              Update.

              The number in hospital with Covid was 2352 on Friday.
              Compared with 34,000 at the peak in January.

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                #22
                Originally posted by boletus View Post
                Compared with 34,000 at the peak in January.
                A peak that arrived following months of growth, which featured a September and October where there were numbers like now, with a few hundred new hopitalisations every few days.

                There's no evidence that the vaccine has stopped the growth being exponential.
                By 18th July, freedom day, the trend would mean about 4500 to 5000 people in hospital, 500 or so on ventilators.
                Then the numbers double every month until you lockdown again.

                It's summer not autumn/winter, so you'd hope the curve was flatter (but people are travelling again, so maybe not).

                I'd much rather be wrong about this!
                My son's wedding is in September and its already been cancelled twice.
                When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                Comment


                  #23
                  Hmm. Plus those figures presumably include those who went to hospital with something else, and were pcr tested to 'have covid' while they were there?
                  To save them chiming in, JPKeates, Theartfullodger, Boletus, Mindthegap, Macromia, Holy Cow & Ted.E.Bear think the opposite of me on almost every subject.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by JK0 View Post
                    Hmm. Plus those figures presumably include those who went to hospital with something else, and were pcr tested to 'have covid' while they were there?
                    Yes, according to the definitions document.

                    I don't know how long that definition has been the same, but I assume that it's been the case for all of the figures being referenced.
                    So the figures from last year would be based on the same definition.

                    The concerning thing is the trend, not that there might be some people with broken legs who tested positive mixed in with the figures.
                    When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                    Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                    Comment


                      #25
                      But would you be concerned if rather than covid, it was the flu? I wouldn't.
                      To save them chiming in, JPKeates, Theartfullodger, Boletus, Mindthegap, Macromia, Holy Cow & Ted.E.Bear think the opposite of me on almost every subject.

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by JK0 View Post
                        But would you be concerned if rather than covid, it was the flu? I wouldn't.
                        Not really.
                        Flu is pretty much a solved problem in the UK.

                        We routinely vaccinate the people most likely to die from it and have a reasonable set of techniques for keeping people who get very ill from it alive.
                        And it doesn't really spread asymptomatically, so people who are infectious are usually already quite ill themselves.
                        And other people can usually tell someone's got flu - I've never had it, but it sounds quite nasty.

                        The threat of Covid is that people can infect other people for a couple of weeks before they possibly feel bad themselves, and most people who are infectious never get any serious symptoms at all.

                        So all the young people who aren't vaccinated and who seem to be the most vulnerable to the new variant are a) a perfect breeding colony for new varients and b) walking round emitting a virus they don't know they've got.

                        When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                        Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
                          I'd much rather be wrong about this!
                          More overly pessimistic than wrong I'd say. There is inevitably going to be a big spike whenever it is lifted.

                          But I don't think the government had any option, the restrictions were only possible with the consent of the people, the majority now think they should largely be lifted.

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                            #28
                            Originally posted by jpkeates View Post

                            So all the young people who aren't vaccinated and who seem to be the most vulnerable to the new variant are a) a perfect breeding colony for new varients and b) walking round emitting a virus they don't know they've got.
                            I see that as a positive thing. The older and most vulnerable are now vaccinated against it and those most resilient and least seriously affected will build herd immunity. There's never going to be a perfect solution.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Originally posted by boletus View Post
                              I see that as a positive thing. The older and most vulnerable are now vaccinated against it and those most resilient and least seriously affected will build herd immunity. There's never going to be a perfect solution.
                              Until the delta varient I would have agreed with you - the variants before then weren't that different to the original (based on my very limited understanding), but the idea that a new varient might be able to infect a vaccinated person is as much of a game changer as having a vaccine in the first place.

                              And, yes, I'm pessimistic, because there isn't such a new variant.

                              I accept that, but I remember how scared I was last March and April.
                              My wife is in the shielding group (which means that I have to be as well), so her likely outcomes and statistics are different to the rest of the population.
                              When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                              Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
                                Not really.
                                Flu is pretty much a solved problem in the UK.

                                We routinely vaccinate the people most likely to die from it and have a reasonable set of techniques for keeping people who get very ill from it alive.
                                And it doesn't really spread asymptomatically, so people who are infectious are usually already quite ill themselves.
                                And other people can usually tell someone's got flu - I've never had it, but it sounds quite nasty.

                                The threat of Covid is that people can infect other people for a couple of weeks before they possibly feel bad themselves, and most people who are infectious never get any serious symptoms at all.

                                So all the young people who aren't vaccinated and who seem to be the most vulnerable to the new variant are a) a perfect breeding colony for new varients and b) walking round emitting a virus they don't know they've got.
                                I believe it's been confirmed (in America at least on the quiet) that covid doesn't spread asymptomatically. Therefore no more of a problem than flu.
                                To save them chiming in, JPKeates, Theartfullodger, Boletus, Mindthegap, Macromia, Holy Cow & Ted.E.Bear think the opposite of me on almost every subject.

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