Off topic - travel corridors.

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  • Jon66
    replied
    Don't you think we all have to think about our attitude to risk and act accordingly. For example we no longer eat out or go to bars, I don't shop for clothes or 'fripperies' anymore, and we don't sit indoors if we are socialising. We carry hand gel and use it after touching anything and try to stay away from other people when food shopping. My partner is a supposed risk due to age but he's fitter, slimmer and healthier than a lot of people half his age. So you have to be responsible for yourselves rather than relying on decisions by an incompetent arse.

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  • royw
    replied
    He isn't the only one who knows what should have been done after the event but is noticeably quiet at the time. It doesn't matter who you vote for a politician always gets in 😕

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  • islandgirl
    replied
    I am afraid I disagree with just about all of that but this is Coronavirus thread not a polical one and it is wonderful to hear Sir Keir enlighten us with the detail of the actions he would be taking if he were in power along with costings and scientific evidence instead of just moaning that everything is not being done correctly....

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  • buzzard1994
    replied
    Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
    Good advice in my humble and not very scientific opinion. However if we are to "vote out incompetants" exactly who would you vote in? How do you imagine Mr Corbyn would have handled the crisis if he had won the last election?
    I have no time for Corbyn but the one good thing this government has done was apparently his idea (furlough was sensible if it hadnt been , crassly implemented).. I think he'd have listened to experts and locked down earlier and he wouldnt have been testing his eyesight. Still irrelevant as I dont live in his constituency so I wouldnt have to vote for him at the next election to get rid of incompetents.who give jobs to incompetent chums. Our economy cant cope with that.

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  • Chester Perry
    replied
    My son was due to start a year at university in korea in September.

    When Covid hit we had a few more hurdles to overcome.

    Full covid test / certificate and TB test / certificate (within previous 48hrs) had to be supplied with application for student visa in July

    On arrival to Seoul in August if presenting no symptoms new arrivals both domestic and foreign were re tested for Covid. If clear they then had to quarantine either at a government facility for 14 days or at their permanent Korean address. He was unable to leave a room with bathroom for next 2 x weeks with an app to order food and provisions which were left outside his door. Here he was temperature tested twice daily.

    Korea was back to functioning normally at this time however due to a demo in Seoul by a sect (who were proven spreaders / refused to isolate etc) there was a spike of 200 new cases a change in level was introduced whereby restaurants etc had to shut by 9pm, no mass gatherings etc.

    Fast forward to this week and all is back to normal, everything functioning and he's out and about. He is even able to do judo again as everything is back to normal.

    I think the success is due to a combination of good leadership who listened to advice and acted when and where needed without fear of financial loss nor upsetting their hedge funds. Note no furlough in Korea paying people to stay at home nor pay self employed to stay at home whilst they still work........I know of several self employed who have struck gold with this.
    No eat out to help out which has been abused throughout .....in some already proven cases by places which were shut at start of troubles with owners back in Europe.

    A society that is responsible and compliant to rules when a introduced. When things were closed and they were asked they didn't go to raves, have mass protests over history and statues, criminals being killed by police overseas, counter protests over afore mentioned nor did they ignore the rules as "its only my mum, sister, friends that Im seeing".

    Personally I am glad that he is where he is as aside from the best interests of health he is able to enjoy being 20 and at university as normal.

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  • islandgirl
    replied
    Good advice in my humble and not very scientific opinion. However if we are to "vote out incompetants" exactly who would you vote in? How do you imagine Mr Corbyn would have handled the crisis if he had won the last election?

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  • buzzard1994
    replied
    Dont know where to begin in responding to daft ideas. We are not Sweden - more like America with poor diet, too much obesity and an incompetent leader. Sweden has many times the deaths of its neighbours despite a population who voluntarily follow restrictions British people are too stupid to accept. Sweden has lower rates of obesity and it takes vitamin D deficiency seriously, and eats lots of oily fish. It is doing far worse than its neighbours. We are not Finland either. Yes immunity is not all about antibodies - but for anyone as old as I suspect you are T cells are not terribly effective, For younger people T cells dont activate without adequate vitamin D. You'll find many studies suggesting it is important, the most recent from America suggest that levels need to be higher than currently considered adequate in the Uk. There is even one small study using it as a treatment, with great success.

    Yes some people get it badly - I know of one 25 year old who died which is why I bother to spread the news about vitamin D and its likely benefits in reducing severity. There are many people suffering the continuing after effects of Covid, they call it long covid. They can include the so called "mild" cases. Those who survive ICU may require long term rehabilitation.

    We are not Sweden - much more like Brazil, with its mass graves, or America, with its high deaths - and not to the end of them by a long way.

    The claims that herd immunity can be achieved at low levels is contradicted by the high levels of infection seen in some places like the mumbai slums. We are nowhere near herd immunity, the second wave has started in the north. People can not get tests, the government wont even allow the NHS to buy tests in, they cant test enough staff or patients. That is what happens when you give a job to an incompetent chum, rather than building on existing expertise.

    We are also beginning to see reinfection.

    Take your vitamin D supplements this winter, stay away from people as much as you can bear, wear a mask when you cant - and next time you can vote - vote out incompetents, because this will not be the last pandemic.

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  • AndrewDod
    replied
    Now it is all coming back to bite (everything I said in this thread).

    Sweden, covid19 “We don’t have the resurgence of the disease that many countries have”. No lockdowns, no elimination of education, courts, police, healthcare
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...es-since-march

    Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy finally silencing the doubters? Sweden's Covid-19 case rate has dropped below both Norway and Denmark in a boost for its 'no-lockdown' approach
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...cing-doubters/

    The small country of 10 million people carried out a record number of new coronavirus tests in the past few weeks, with the national health agency reporting that only 1.2 percent came back positive last week, the lowest rate since the pandemic began, and much better than anywhere else

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  • Jon66
    replied
    Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
    There is a critically important article in JAMA yesterday, and most especially the comment on the article by Gary Ginsberg. It points out, the very thing I pointed out on this forum from the start - and something that is going to become increasingly apparent. The deaths, and even more strikingly, the number of life-years lost in most Western countries from suicide and and unemployment related deaths and despair is going to greatly exceed coronavirus deaths, perhaps by 50 to 100 fold.

    So, yes, we could have more rigorous lockdown. But it's pretty dismal not to factor in what we (the supposed beneficiaries of all this) are doing to our younger generation.

    VanderWeele TJ. Challenges Estimating Total Lives Lost in COVID-19 Decisions: Consideration of Mortality Related to Unemployment, Social Isolation, and Depression. JAMA. 2020.

    https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.12187
    The covid situation certainly highlights the inability of this government to organise anything. Too little, too late. I must say I am really enjoying PMQs though. Dare I say I like SirKS and think we might have had a better outcome with him in charge. Boris really does sink to being a bumbling idiot in his presence and just looks stupid.

    Surely the problem is we don't know why covid affects some people and not others. There was a compelling article in the Guardian recently about 30 somethings who had covid badly and the very long road to recovery they were having. These were white fit people previously going to the gym and not overweight, but had it so badly they are now struggling to walk up a flight of stairs some months on and all said it would be a long haul back. Not because they were so ill, but because it seems to affect some people's lungs in a very different way, leaving long term damage in some.

    I have immense sympathy for older people who have died from this thing, and there cannot be any doubt if the lockdown was a week earlier the death rate would be severely reduced. I can't help thinking if people in the 40s were those affected most severely we would have had a different governmental response. The over 80s are probably the ones with the least voice.

    And yes, those economically affected the worse is working women, and over the next few years probably the under 25s. Always the same with Tory governments, the youth suffer. I suspect we shall have riots before it's all over.

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  • jpkeates
    replied
    My issue here is that I am, by nature, pessimistic.

    It is quite possible that herd immunity is a viable outcome.
    But it isn't guaranteed.

    We don't currently have a vaccine.
    There are no working coronavirus vaccines in existence (although there are lots of reasons development stopped or didn't happen).

    We don't know for sure that immunity even exists for this disease.
    If it does, we don't know how long it lasts.

    We don't know if it mutates slowly or quickly (relatively speaking).
    A five year time frame may be academic if it mutates like flu.

    That's a lot of things we don't know which should affect our (humanities) strategy.

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  • AndrewDod
    replied
    buzzard,

    Most of that is simply not true. I don't even know where to begin.

    For starters, there is far more to the immune system than "antibodies" It is not the experience so far that people are getting infected twice in short sequence (and probably not for at least 6 months which is as much as we can know now). The Swedish press releases of today even said as much, but the science is fairly clear
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...fter-infection

    Thinking that antibody tests (even if they weren't massively flawed, which they are) is telling much about how many are likely to remain subject to serious infection is based on an understanding of immunology from Noddy. Fact is that despite not much lockdown, Sweden has not shown continuing exponential rate of deaths (which would be expected based on the Noddy idea). The only thing that is really relevant is deaths over 5 years - and many of those will not be virus related but lockdown related. Indeed they are already.

    My earlier comments about PPE and laboratory infrastructure in the UK (which has been destroyed and is extremely poor) was also clear, and entirely correct (and in fact mentioned clearly in the article you linked). It is indeed more than a shortage of reagents, it is a system collapse which long predates this government and began in its biggest drive under Tony Blair.

    New Zealand is totally irrelevant. Are you suggesting we implement NZ style border controls now (and retrospectively), imprison those who took part in BLM marches and hid in cupboards in pubs, and deport sufficient population to emulate the NZ population structure/density/xenophobia? There are some who would like that. NZ is not a model state.

    It is all a matter of timescale, not who gets what disease in whatever week. Of course unless you don't believe in the basics of germ theory, isolation of people will alter the timescale of disease prevalence - but that may be a big "so what".

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  • buzzard1994
    replied
    Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post

    Well Sweden probably has likely reached a state of herd immunity (which only in fact needs a rather low overall number of infections) -- which is where we should be now, but are not because of the harm an indiscriminate lockdown has caused. A great outcome in Sweden with no (involuntary) lockdown at all

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/28/t...n-an-analysis/
    Having too much trouble logging into this site to come back before but...

    Herd immunity probably is not achievable since antibodies wane rapidly. Even in Stockholm they think maybe only 20% have antibodies. They have 3 times the death rate of neighbouring countries.The Swedish economy is also expected to suffer as Swedes stay home. If you want somewhere the economy is not suffering look to New Zealand.

    Dont understand what you think you are saying about PPE. Of course it is manufactured - but the government choose to give contracts to firms with no experience. Schools made face shields for the NHS using 3-D printers because the government miserably failed to souce PPE.

    Children do, sometimes, still have 2 parents, you seem to ignore fathers and think mothers stop playing with their children at quite a young age.

    I'd need to see proof of anything political you say before believing it. Claims of reagent shortages were exaggerated https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/...011457.article and tests were sent to the USA (and a lot had to be redone) because of this governments incompetence in letting contracts https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...for-processing


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  • jpkeates
    replied
    Research (cited in the Guardian) seems to indicate that there isn't any long lasting immunity in people who have had Covid 19.
    Which means that herd immunity will depend on either some kind of super vaccine or something that people can take regularly.

    Or we'll have to focus on eliminating it from circulation.
    Or finding something to mitigate it.
    Or just learn to live with it.

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  • AndrewDod
    replied
    Originally posted by mind the gap View Post

    Yes, there is. It's called poverty. Voluntary self-isolation/shielding is a luxury only available, in practice, to the comfortably off. I can't see the government agreeing to furlough such people indefinitely, can you?
    Well no, because these are the only people who should have been furloughed. By sloshing around money where it did not need to be sloshed, they made it impossible to slosh it where it should be sloshed (now only now but over the next several decades of very vulnerable people who actually need state support).

    See my Sweden link above.

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  • AndrewDod
    replied
    Originally posted by Kape65 View Post
    It's my belief that the government is following the herd immunity strategy on the sly.
    Well Sweden probably has likely reached a state of herd immunity (which only in fact needs a rather low overall number of infections) -- which is where we should be now, but are not because of the harm an indiscriminate lockdown has caused. A great outcome in Sweden with no (involuntary) lockdown at all

    https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/28/t...n-an-analysis/

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