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    #31
    Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
    Can't see anything odd my end. I wonder if it is something saved in your browser.
    The content of post #20 is not what was there before.

    I agree it looks fine, but it's changed completely.

    I seem to be able to edit posts in this part of the forum very differently.

    I can edit my posts from June.
    When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
    Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

    Comment


      #32
      Originally posted by buzzard1994 View Post
      It is not irrelevant that demand on scarce resources is reduced and recovery is faster. It is not the most important outcome but still useful to know. Sometimes a drug that speeds recovery needs to be tried in a different dose or formulation to have a greater impact.
      Actually the problem was that even this possible effect was only demonstrated in one study, and was not obeservable in others. That didn't stop governments starting to stockpile $billions of the stuff.

      Even in the best of times, the systems that lead to and regulate drug and medical device development and use is totally broken in the UK and internationally -- report of today
      https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-a9605986.html

      full report https://t.co/2mIXOMI0eF?amp=1

      and this is not the best of times for science.

      It's all about ££££££ and bribes

      Comment


        #33
        There is a critically important article in JAMA yesterday, and most especially the comment on the article by Gary Ginsberg. It points out, the very thing I pointed out on this forum from the start - and something that is going to become increasingly apparent. The deaths, and even more strikingly, the number of life-years lost in most Western countries from suicide and and unemployment related deaths and despair is going to greatly exceed coronavirus deaths, perhaps by 50 to 100 fold.

        So, yes, we could have more rigorous lockdown. But it's pretty dismal not to factor in what we (the supposed beneficiaries of all this) are doing to our younger generation.

        VanderWeele TJ. Challenges Estimating Total Lives Lost in COVID-19 Decisions: Consideration of Mortality Related to Unemployment, Social Isolation, and Depression. JAMA. 2020.

        https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.12187

        Comment


          #34
          The Government track and trace system tested on Isle of Wight was found to work on android mobiles but not on apple mobiles. And the Government seems to be clueless on what to do. They should now insist all arrivals by air , train and ferry to quarantine for 15 days or buy a android phone with sim for one year.

          Comment


            #35
            Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
            It's all about ££££££ and bribes
            The system never used to be broken. Post thalidomide we had a vigorous system, so the world came here to do it's research because the results of British trials were trusted in a way no other country could match. Probably yet another impact of government cuts plus the impact of Brexit. The european regulatory authority left and probably took some good scientists with it.

            Who do you think the "we" is who is supposed to be the beneficiary of lockdown? It benefits everyone by allowing time for new treatments to be developed. It benefits everyone by getting the disease partly under control so that people will be willing to go out and spend money again. It benefits anyone who needs health care by ensuring that hospitals are not overwhelmed and maybe you have time to get PPE so your health care staff are not dead. It benefits children who dont loose their parents or have parents too sick to play with them. The economy has suffered everywhere that has not controlled the virus, whether they locked down or not.

            An incompetent government went into lockdown late and imposed more restrictions than were necessary. It has opened up some things far too slowly - garden centres should never have been shut, outdoor attractions and self catering accommodation could have reopened sooner. It gave the job of testing and the job of sourcing PPE to companies with no experience.

            Anyone with money needs to be helping the economy recover. We are supporting local restaurants who rapidly switched to delivering meals, buying food from farms, have brought forward purchases when we can. However unless we feel the virus is under control we wont be going in pubs and restaurants or on foreign holidays.

            Comment


              #36
              .. and maybe the petal-flower Brits could stoop to picking vegetables instead of relying on handouts...

              But anyway, the "vigorous" drug regulatory system ended at least 30 years ago (you should read the 2005 House of Commons Select committee report on the corruption of the UK regulator). The UK regulator has been only marginally less corrupt than European ones with some shocking behavior in France in particular - so much for the EU. There are almost no credible scientists within the regulators (in contrast to the US) - they are mostly paper-pushing technocrats. Less than 0.5% of coronavirus deaths are in woman of childbearing age (just a few hundred people) and the number of those who were playing with children was minute (most were pretty ill beforehand). PPE is not magicked up -- it is manufactured. The UK makes no diagnostic testing reagents ever since a succession of mostly Labour governments stuffed up NHS laboratories and turned them into automatons.

              Comment


                #37
                Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post

                There is absolutely nothing stopping vulnerable people from self isolating (as I am myself).
                Yes, there is. It's called poverty. Voluntary self-isolation/shielding is a luxury only available, in practice, to the comfortably off. I can't see the government agreeing to furlough such people indefinitely, can you?
                'Pause you who read this, and think for a moment of the long chain of iron or gold, of thorns or flowers, that would never have bound you, but for the formation fo the first link on one memorable day'. Charles Dickens, Great Expectations

                Comment


                  #38
                  Originally posted by Kape65 View Post
                  It's my belief that the government is following the herd immunity strategy on the sly.
                  Well Sweden probably has likely reached a state of herd immunity (which only in fact needs a rather low overall number of infections) -- which is where we should be now, but are not because of the harm an indiscriminate lockdown has caused. A great outcome in Sweden with no (involuntary) lockdown at all

                  https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/28/t...n-an-analysis/

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Originally posted by mind the gap View Post

                    Yes, there is. It's called poverty. Voluntary self-isolation/shielding is a luxury only available, in practice, to the comfortably off. I can't see the government agreeing to furlough such people indefinitely, can you?
                    Well no, because these are the only people who should have been furloughed. By sloshing around money where it did not need to be sloshed, they made it impossible to slosh it where it should be sloshed (now only now but over the next several decades of very vulnerable people who actually need state support).

                    See my Sweden link above.

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Research (cited in the Guardian) seems to indicate that there isn't any long lasting immunity in people who have had Covid 19.
                      Which means that herd immunity will depend on either some kind of super vaccine or something that people can take regularly.

                      Or we'll have to focus on eliminating it from circulation.
                      Or finding something to mitigate it.
                      Or just learn to live with it.

                      When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                      Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                      Comment


                        #41
                        Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post

                        Well Sweden probably has likely reached a state of herd immunity (which only in fact needs a rather low overall number of infections) -- which is where we should be now, but are not because of the harm an indiscriminate lockdown has caused. A great outcome in Sweden with no (involuntary) lockdown at all

                        https://judithcurry.com/2020/06/28/t...n-an-analysis/
                        Having too much trouble logging into this site to come back before but...

                        Herd immunity probably is not achievable since antibodies wane rapidly. Even in Stockholm they think maybe only 20% have antibodies. They have 3 times the death rate of neighbouring countries.The Swedish economy is also expected to suffer as Swedes stay home. If you want somewhere the economy is not suffering look to New Zealand.

                        Dont understand what you think you are saying about PPE. Of course it is manufactured - but the government choose to give contracts to firms with no experience. Schools made face shields for the NHS using 3-D printers because the government miserably failed to souce PPE.

                        Children do, sometimes, still have 2 parents, you seem to ignore fathers and think mothers stop playing with their children at quite a young age.

                        I'd need to see proof of anything political you say before believing it. Claims of reagent shortages were exaggerated https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/...011457.article and tests were sent to the USA (and a lot had to be redone) because of this governments incompetence in letting contracts https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...for-processing


                        Comment


                          #42
                          buzzard,

                          Most of that is simply not true. I don't even know where to begin.

                          For starters, there is far more to the immune system than "antibodies" It is not the experience so far that people are getting infected twice in short sequence (and probably not for at least 6 months which is as much as we can know now). The Swedish press releases of today even said as much, but the science is fairly clear
                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...fter-infection

                          Thinking that antibody tests (even if they weren't massively flawed, which they are) is telling much about how many are likely to remain subject to serious infection is based on an understanding of immunology from Noddy. Fact is that despite not much lockdown, Sweden has not shown continuing exponential rate of deaths (which would be expected based on the Noddy idea). The only thing that is really relevant is deaths over 5 years - and many of those will not be virus related but lockdown related. Indeed they are already.

                          My earlier comments about PPE and laboratory infrastructure in the UK (which has been destroyed and is extremely poor) was also clear, and entirely correct (and in fact mentioned clearly in the article you linked). It is indeed more than a shortage of reagents, it is a system collapse which long predates this government and began in its biggest drive under Tony Blair.

                          New Zealand is totally irrelevant. Are you suggesting we implement NZ style border controls now (and retrospectively), imprison those who took part in BLM marches and hid in cupboards in pubs, and deport sufficient population to emulate the NZ population structure/density/xenophobia? There are some who would like that. NZ is not a model state.

                          It is all a matter of timescale, not who gets what disease in whatever week. Of course unless you don't believe in the basics of germ theory, isolation of people will alter the timescale of disease prevalence - but that may be a big "so what".

                          Comment


                            #43
                            My issue here is that I am, by nature, pessimistic.

                            It is quite possible that herd immunity is a viable outcome.
                            But it isn't guaranteed.

                            We don't currently have a vaccine.
                            There are no working coronavirus vaccines in existence (although there are lots of reasons development stopped or didn't happen).

                            We don't know for sure that immunity even exists for this disease.
                            If it does, we don't know how long it lasts.

                            We don't know if it mutates slowly or quickly (relatively speaking).
                            A five year time frame may be academic if it mutates like flu.

                            That's a lot of things we don't know which should affect our (humanities) strategy.

                            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                            Comment


                              #44
                              Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
                              There is a critically important article in JAMA yesterday, and most especially the comment on the article by Gary Ginsberg. It points out, the very thing I pointed out on this forum from the start - and something that is going to become increasingly apparent. The deaths, and even more strikingly, the number of life-years lost in most Western countries from suicide and and unemployment related deaths and despair is going to greatly exceed coronavirus deaths, perhaps by 50 to 100 fold.

                              So, yes, we could have more rigorous lockdown. But it's pretty dismal not to factor in what we (the supposed beneficiaries of all this) are doing to our younger generation.

                              VanderWeele TJ. Challenges Estimating Total Lives Lost in COVID-19 Decisions: Consideration of Mortality Related to Unemployment, Social Isolation, and Depression. JAMA. 2020.

                              https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.12187
                              The covid situation certainly highlights the inability of this government to organise anything. Too little, too late. I must say I am really enjoying PMQs though. Dare I say I like SirKS and think we might have had a better outcome with him in charge. Boris really does sink to being a bumbling idiot in his presence and just looks stupid.

                              Surely the problem is we don't know why covid affects some people and not others. There was a compelling article in the Guardian recently about 30 somethings who had covid badly and the very long road to recovery they were having. These were white fit people previously going to the gym and not overweight, but had it so badly they are now struggling to walk up a flight of stairs some months on and all said it would be a long haul back. Not because they were so ill, but because it seems to affect some people's lungs in a very different way, leaving long term damage in some.

                              I have immense sympathy for older people who have died from this thing, and there cannot be any doubt if the lockdown was a week earlier the death rate would be severely reduced. I can't help thinking if people in the 40s were those affected most severely we would have had a different governmental response. The over 80s are probably the ones with the least voice.

                              And yes, those economically affected the worse is working women, and over the next few years probably the under 25s. Always the same with Tory governments, the youth suffer. I suspect we shall have riots before it's all over.

                              Comment


                                #45
                                Now it is all coming back to bite (everything I said in this thread).

                                Sweden, covid19 “We don’t have the resurgence of the disease that many countries have”. No lockdowns, no elimination of education, courts, police, healthcare
                                https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...es-since-march

                                Is Sweden's coronavirus strategy finally silencing the doubters? Sweden's Covid-19 case rate has dropped below both Norway and Denmark in a boost for its 'no-lockdown' approach
                                https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...cing-doubters/

                                The small country of 10 million people carried out a record number of new coronavirus tests in the past few weeks, with the national health agency reporting that only 1.2 percent came back positive last week, the lowest rate since the pandemic began, and much better than anywhere else

                                Comment

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