Off topic - travel corridors.

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    #16
    Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post

    There has never in the history of medicine been any vaccine that causes greater immunity than having the disease itself.
    So when you've caught the disease and died you're immune because you'll never die from it again? That's an interesting way of looking at it.

    I'm sure catching the disease is just as good as long as you're still alive to benefit from it.

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      #17
      Originally posted by royw View Post

      So when you've caught the disease and died you're immune because you'll never die from it again? That's an interesting way of looking at it.

      I'm sure catching the disease is just as good as long as you're still alive to benefit from it.
      That's a completely irrelevant comment -- sorry.

      Comment


        #18
        If you get Covid-19 you may be fortunate and have only mild symptoms. However there are probably about 20% who get it badly and you are more likely to be in that group if you are older, male and have diabetes or are overweight. It's not great if you have a heart or respiratory problem. This is not a mild flu like illness for many people. The long term effects of the illness are unknown and the antibodies seem to be fading after a few months.

        Dexamethasone has been a real breakthrough and hopefully the trails will find other drugs that can be used. The drugs are considerably safer than the disease. Lockdown provided time to study the disease and start finding better treatments, a process that is ongoing. Your chance of survival if you get the virus now is better because we locked down. I think a vaccine will be developed that will at least reduce the severity of symptoms but how often you will need to take it will be the issue. The vaccine is likely to have fewer problems than the virus, most people seem to be unaware of quite how nasty this can be.

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          #19
          Originally posted by buzzard1994 View Post
          If you get Covid-19 you may be fortunate and have only mild symptoms. However there are probably about 20% who get it badly and you are more likely to be in that group if you are older, male and have diabetes or are overweight. It's not great if you have a heart or respiratory problem. This is not a mild flu like illness for many people. The long term effects of the illness are unknown and the antibodies seem to be fading after a few months.

          Dexamethasone has been a real breakthrough and hopefully the trails will find other drugs that can be used. The drugs are considerably safer than the disease. Lockdown provided time to study the disease and start finding better treatments, a process that is ongoing. Your chance of survival if you get the virus now is better because we locked down. I think a vaccine will be developed that will at least reduce the severity of symptoms but how often you will need to take it will be the issue. The vaccine is likely to have fewer problems than the virus, most people seem to be unaware of quite how nasty this can be.
          It has been known from the very start that the above is not correct.

          Most of the epidemiological studies have shown that at least 98% are totally asymptomatic. So that is quite simply untrue.

          Dexamethasone actually increased mortality in the studies. It is not a "real breakthrough". That is utterly untrue as well.

          Mortality is increased with dexamethasone in mild cases 17.0% v 13.2% (1.22 (0.93 to 1.61); P=0.14).
          and
          ‘Patients with longer duration of symptoms (who were more likely to be on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomization) had a greater mortality benefit, such that dexamethasone was associated with a reduction in 28-day mortality among those with symptoms for more than 7 days but not among those with more recent symptom onset (test for trend p<0.001)’
          Steroids (like dexamethasone) probably prolonging the viral load and reducing the immune response increasing mortality in mild to moderate disease.

          Really there needs to be more science training in schools.

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            #20
            Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
            How do you propose not eventually "allowing everyone to catch it" JP?
            Isolation.
            It's a virus and will die out with no one to catch it.

            And as if by magic - https://www.independentsage.org/inde...s-from-the-uk/

            Had to post that - this almost never happens!
            Last edited by jpkeates; 07-07-2020, 14:02 PM.
            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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              #21
              It's possible that most of the world has had it already. Samples of sewage taken over a year ago have been found to contain the virus. I have a suspicion that I may have had the virus myself but it would have been early January if so.

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                #22
                Apart from the earlier repatriation of air passengers and subsequent, enforced isolation for 14 days, at Govt expense, no devolved UK country appears to have an effective solution.
                Surely it is better to reqire ANY entrant to undertake routine swabs. Not 100%, but better than nothing in the absence of similar promised IoW tracker.
                My preferred solution.

                Comment


                  #23
                  This article of today gives a lot of insight. I agree with all of it, except for the fact that when it reports that Dexamethasone is the only drug so far to have shown any effect, it fails to say clearly that some trials have shown no effect at all, and that the only single trial that has shown an effect shows that the effect (if any) is restricted to the sickest of the sickest patients. In less sick patients it actually kills people.

                  But the other important point is how the UK is mentioned. One of the problems in this whole scenario is the blurring of political and scientific motives. Some people are looking at things through the sole lens of what political bashing they can do (whether of Boris, Trump or whoever) and they twist the facts (and ignore others) to suit their agenda, rather than the science.

                  The UK is singled out as the ONLY country carrying out research in a coordinated enough way to have any meaning. So much for the endless mantra about how badly the UK has done.

                  https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/06/...ovid-19-drugs/

                  But in general the research is a shambles, and one cannot trust what is reported.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    The second last paragraph of the article above is the one to see (apologies for the separate post, but experienced users here will appreciate the hazards of attempting to edit posts). Also it fails to point out that some other drugs have only shown an effect on largely irrelevant intermediate endpoints (such as shortening the number of days in hospital by 2 days without altering mortality at all).

                    Comment


                      #25
                      I think the underlying problem is that given the US distrust of the WHO and the UN generally, there isn't a body that can co-ordinate international efforts of this nature.

                      One of the things that has really surprised me has been the lack of an EU wide common approach to the virus, for example.

                      And, although it's nothing to do with the article, the deaths in the US are going to be generation scarring.
                      When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                      Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
                        I think the underlying problem is that given the US distrust of the WHO and the UN generally, there isn't a body that can co-ordinate international efforts of this nature.

                        One of the things that has really surprised me has been the lack of an EU wide common approach to the virus, for example.

                        And, although it's nothing to do with the article, the deaths in the US are going to be generation scarring.
                        Agree with that, and it will be generation scarring (largely not due to the virus deaths though). The WHO is not at all trustworthy. The last similar fiasco when governments stockpiled billions of Tamiflu based on falsified scientific data had its wheel oiled by the WHO.

                        Comment


                          #27
                          That was weird - I quoted some text from post #20 and it replaced the original content.

                          Apologies, was accidental and I don't think it distorts the thread in any material way.
                          When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                          Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Can't see anything odd my end. I wonder if it is something saved in your browser.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post

                              Really there needs to be more science training in schools.
                              Well that is one thing we can agree on!

                              At the start the information was coming from China - and that has since been shown to be as unreliable as some of their junk products. Even so no study has shown 98% asymptomatic. Some studies have suggested a 2% death rate, although that depends on how elderly a group you are looking at since the death rate varies considerably with age and sex. It is unlikely to be 2% in any population that includes all age groups. The latest estimates, published in the press yesterday, were of 22% asymptomatic at the time of testing and just 33% having symptoms at some stage. Note that you need to engage thought - why were they being tested if they had no symptoms? Yes some were tests of people who had been in contact with others testing positive but more are being tested because some sort of symptom has made them think they might be sick. One of the things we actually do know is that the tests work best within days of symptoms developing and are less accurate at other times.

                              Our government want people back in work. I want to see the economy being rebuilt too but I'm not prepared to lie about the risks to do so. Estimates of the numbers asymptomatic vary and depend very much on the age group being studied, my best guess would be about 40% is likely in Britain. Of the rest some will have symptoms described as "mild" at the time but some of those will later report ongoing problems lasting months. No-one yet knows when, or even if, those people will recover. The number who need hospital care depends on the age group. At the moment those being infected are mainly under 60 so the hospitalisation rate has gone down. The government is still trying its "herd immunity" strategy.

                              There definitely needs to be more teaching on statistics in schools. The apparent increase in mortality from using dexamethasone in mild cases was not statistically significant, the reduction in mortality in those needing respiratory support was. However no-one will now be giving it to mild cases but it will be produced as rapidly as people can do so as supplies of the more useful formulation are insufficient. Meanwhile the Recovery study and others will be looking at other treatments and vaccines will continue to be tested.

                              My preferred solution to the travel issue is compulsory quarantine in a hotel with testing on arrival and testing again 4 days later. If both tests are negative you are allowed out. We would need better guards on the quarantine than in Australia.

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
                                Also it fails to point out that some other drugs have only shown an effect on largely irrelevant intermediate endpoints (such as shortening the number of days in hospital by 2 days without altering mortality at all).
                                It is not irrelevant that demand on scarce resources is reduced and recovery is faster. It is not the most important outcome but still useful to know. Sometimes a drug that speeds recovery needs to be tried in a different dose or formulation to have a greater impact.

                                What we most need is something that prevents infection but until we get that something that reduces severity and stops mild cases progressing to more severe illness. No-one has found that yet. There are correlations between vitamin D deficiency and severe illness and although there is no proof that this is cause and effect anyone with sense will ensure they are not deficient. It is being trialled in places other than Britain as a treatment but in such small studies that they may not give conclusive answers.

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