Brexit

[islandgirl]

It is interesting how Remainers always think they are intellectually superior to Leavers and accuse them of "not understanding" things. Many of us do understand and have researched many issues in depth before adopting our position on Brexit; My expectations are modest and realistic but I know that we must never sign the withdrawal agreement if any of them are to be realized. As I say, if you believe in the all powerful, all generous, all benevolent EU then I am happy for you. The rest of us saw through it long ago.

[jpkeates]

They used to call Britain "Treasure Island", now its all been sold off...what on earth do we own anymore?

John Redwood really is a moron isn't he?

What is the fascination with the fishing industry? It's less than half of one percent of our economy. It's mostly made up of quota owners who sell them so that other people can use them.

We haven't been self sufficient in food since the industrial revolution.

Most of our economy is services, not manufacturing.

For most of the period where he's citing losses and declines, his party was in charge. Teachers being sacked and reduced bin collections is his party's policy.

He's one of the stupidest people I have ever heard - he's as thick as mince with a posh accent.

[Macromia]

I live in a leave voting area (64% I think). I guess the majority of my neighbours don't feel like things can get any worse for them than it already is so it's not about what is the most profitable option it's about being free to make our own choices.

I am also in a leave voting area (slightly higher than the percentage you give).
In my area it is largely xenophobia and the false belief that the EU is to blame for all the UK's problems that seems to be behind the leave vote - as well as (in some people) a belief that everything will almost instantly be OK as soon as we leave.

It is interesting how Remainers always think they are intellectually superior to Leavers and accuse them of "not understanding" things.

When people demonstrate that they don't understand things, saying that they don't understand is simply stating a fact.
What I said is that many leave voters show that they don't understand certain things - that is a fact.
What I didn't do is claim intellectual superiority - even the brightest intellectual minds will ofter fail to understand subjects that they either haven't looked into, or where they are unable to overcome their own biases (for examples of that you only have to look at some of the top scientists, more often than not Americans, who reject evolution because they have never understood the science because of their religious beliefs).

Many of us do understand and have researched many issues in depth before adopting our position on Brexit; My expectations are modest and realistic but I know that we must never sign the withdrawal agreement if any of them are to be realized. As I say, if you believe in the all powerful, all generous, all benevolent EU then I am happy for you. The rest of us saw through it long ago.

I am sure that many leavers do understand many of the issues, and much about how the EU functions - but I have yet to 'discuss' the subject of Brexit with a single leave supporter who actually demonstrates that they don't have any misunderstandings. You, for example, have said that the withdrawal agreement is something that we would be stuck with. It is not, it is a temporary arrangement that would be in place only until we agree more permanent trade deals. If we can't agree trade deals during the transition period (including any extension) there are certain aspects that will remain in place (the Irish backstop being a significant one), but we could still negotiate a trade deal that would remove these arrangements at a later date.
Your main 'complaint' seems to be the idea that we won't get a deal that favours the UK if we agree to a withdrawal agreement. The reality is that we won't get a deal that favours the UK over the EU under any circumstances.
The type of deal that most leavers seem to want (free, or practically free, trade with the EU without the UK having to follow any rules and regulations set by the EU if we don't want to, and without free movement of people) is a pipe dream that will never happen.
What type of deal do you personally think the EU should offer the UK?

[theartfullodger]

I love your sense of humour Artful. I prefer dog. Watch out Rover....

Ta. It wasn't meant as a joke...
https://www.manxforums.com/forums/up...2e0be3e3dd.png

[ram]

John Redwood really is a moron isn't he?
Most of our economy is services, not manufacturing.

You forget that running a county is the same as running a business.
Money IN must exceed Money OUT. or you go bankrupt !

Manufacturing ( via exports ) brought money in.
Now we have considerably less money coming in, and NOW WE HAVE TO GIVE AWAY 36 MILLION A DAY to the E.U.

In 2018 the UK made an estimated gross contribution (after the rebate) of £13.2 billion
( £ 36 million a DAY )
( https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7886 )

If you don't export to get money in, where does the £ 36 million a day come from ?
Keep giving your money to another country, when next to none is coming in , and you run out of money, just like Argentina, when the public's money was frozen and TAKEN to finance the debt they had.
Can't pay your debts, and the countries assets are "taken".

Britain is in debt over it's head, and one day, the I.M.F. or whoever, will call in the loan, ( even if we are out of the E.U.as we still can't afford to pay back our loans.)

Britain is more in debt now, than before joining the E.U. .. So we have been lied to when people say we are better off in the E.U... LIES, DAM LIES. And we all have to pay for it by reduced services.

[islandgirl]

I knew it wasn't Artful, but it is funny to me how dramatic Project Fear has become! Good cartoon though.
Macromia - you must be the biggest fan of the withdrawal agreement ever. Hotel California - you check into it but can never leave....well not without the EUs permission anyway. It is not a complicated concept though you seem to struggle with it. I give up - if you think it is a good thing then be my guest. Those of us who know will continue to worry that the government may bring it back minus the backstop.

[JK0]

I think it's understandable in a way IG. Anyone under 50 won't remember not being in the EU. Did you ever hear the poem: ' Jim, Who Ran away from his Nurse, and was Eaten by a Lion' ?

It ends with the lines:

And always keep a-hold of Nurse

For fear of finding something worse.

I think Remainers have taken that poem to heart.

[islandgirl]

Absolutely JKO - Yes I have heard that and it rings true in our situation. Fear that we cannot survive in the big bad world. One of my kids is about to go to uni. Yes he is nervous of what it may be like and apprehensive about the huge step of leaving home - yet he has a huge opportunity to have fabulous experiences and gain a degree which will steer him towards a fantastic career. The Remainer version of my son would turn down his place and stay at home just in case. I suppose we should be understanding of their fear. It is not like we ever travelled abroad before the EU. And I cannot imagine how the farm workers used to come here on work visas for the summer then toddle off home happy with their wages. There was never cross border employment before the glorious EU....

[nukecad]

Blue passports, Rat for lunch.

That's if the Blue passports can make it across the channel, or is that the North Sea now that they are going to be printed in Poland?
https://www.thefirstnews.com/article...in-poland-6592

[jpkeates]

You forget that running a county is the same as running a business.
Money IN must exceed Money OUT. or you go bankrupt !

Running a country is nothing like running a business.

Businesses come and go all the time, nations persist.
Nations can live with perpetual debt and "trade" at a loss - the USA has a national debt of $22.5 trillion dollars.
That can never be paid back - it's so well established that it gets bought and sold like shares.

Nations can just create currency or borrow without security (the worse the situation of the nation, the higher the cost of borrowing, but no one says no).

Many of the worst and most harmful decisions are made by governments who think that running a national economy is like running a company or a household.
We've got a policy of austerity that's driving working people to food banks, trying to balance books that can't be and don't need to be balanced.

[ram]

Running a country is nothing like running a business.

If you think that countries don't have to pay interest on their loans, then you are misguided.

The U.S.A. and U.K. have massive loans, with massive interest payments, which you and i are paying for.
The government has no money themselves, as it's our money they take from us to pay for services, hospitals and interest payments. ( just like freeholders of leased buildings ).

[jpkeates]

I know that countries pay interest on their loans (I even mentioned that in my post - that the cost of borrowing varies with the situation the country finds itself in).

But the UK can't go out of business or become bankrupt like a company (and if it did start to wobble, the impact on the pound would probably undermine the debt, because we usually borrow in GBP against bonds).
It can change the value of its currency, which a business can't do.

They're fundamentally different economic concepts.

[ram]

the UK can't go out of business or become bankrupt like a company

Sorry, you are wrong.
I have already stated that Argentina went bankrupt, and people could not get their cash out of the banks.

Zimbabwe . In June 2019, the official inflation rate was 97.9%. Because the country is bankrupt.
In June 2009, the rate of inflation was 90 sextillion percent. Prices rose tenfold every day !
Mid-July 2019 inflation had increased to 175%

Info.
Zimbabwe hyperinflation began when president Robert Mugabe embarked on an Economic Structural Adjustment Programme in which the land of white farmers was forcibly taken and given to blacks who did not know how to farm.
Production plunged and capital flight (money and white flight) began. Unemployment rose to 80%.
( So we assume food now has to be imported, and Zimbabwe money is worth next to nothing.)
They even had a 100 trillion dollar bank note ( worth about $ 40 usd )
see https://editorial.azureedge.net/misc...9261962385.jpg

I repeat, countries go bankrupt.

I am not talking out of my arse.

[jpkeates]

But Argentina didn't go bankrupt in the sense that a company did.
Argentina is still there, it recovered and has repaid most of the debt it initially defaulted on.

Again, Zimbabwe is currently restructuring its currency and debt.

Newspapers and other media talk about a country being bankrupt, but when someone like Woolworth's goes bankrupt it ceases to exist (or is bought for peanuts).

Argentina defaulted in billions of dollars of interest payments, but it restructured its economy (like Zimbabwe did recently it introduced an entirely new currency to allow people to buy stuff while the main currency was worthless).

Woolworths couldn't create a whole new currency or borrow from the IMF when no one else would loan them money.

When a country's economy goes into crisis, the effects (as you point out) are usually hyper inflation and the immediate impact is on its people.
But it can get support that no company can, because the economic world can't afford to lose an Argentina or Zimbabwe, it can afford any number of Woolworths to vanish.

And I wouldn't ever accuse someone with whom I am having a debate of talking out of their arse!

[Macromia]

Macromia - you must be the biggest fan of the withdrawal agreement ever.

Far from it.
Withdrawing from the EU at all is not in the best interests of the UK, but if we are going to do so (despite the fact that there are no clear benefits from leaving - at least, none that 'leave' supporters seem able to provide and justify) leaving with a withdrawal deal in place, like the one that was negotiated, is far, far preferable than leaving without any sort of a deal.

Hotel California - you check into it but can never leave....well not without the EUs permission anyway. It is not a complicated concept though you seem to struggle with it. I give up - if you think it is a good thing then be my guest. Those of us who know will continue to worry that the government may bring it back minus the backstop.

You repeatedly claim that 'leavers' understand all of the issues, yet you continue to demonstrate that you _don't_ understand that the withdrawal agreement is a temporary arrangement that would be in place only until the UK and EU have agreed alternative arrangements for a more permanent deal (although, even if a more permanent trade deal was somehow agreed by the end of 2019, the arrangements set out in the withdrawal agreement would likely remain in place until the end of the transition period (in December 2020).

It really _isn't_ a complicated concept. It is a _temporary_ agreement that is supposed to be in place only to minimise disruption while more permanent agreements are negotiated.

Fear that we cannot survive in the big bad world. One of my kids is about to go to uni. Yes he is nervous of what it may be like and apprehensive about the huge step of leaving home - yet he has a huge opportunity to have fabulous experiences and gain a degree which will steer him towards a fantastic career. The Remainer version of my son would turn down his place and stay at home just in case. I suppose we should be understanding of their fear. It is not like we ever travelled abroad before the EU. And I cannot imagine how the farm workers used to come here on work visas for the summer then toddle off home happy with their wages. There was never cross border employment before the glorious EU....

The problem is that you are repeatedly, and consistently, "straw manning" what the majority of remain supporters think.

Sure, there will likely be a minority of remain supporters who are ill-informed and may therefore believe that the UK cannot survive outside of the EU, but that is _NOT_ what most think.

Objections to leaving the EU are typically _NOT_ because of 'fear' of what might happen, because remain supporters think that we can't survive without the EU, or because they are apprehensive about the unknown.
The majority of remain supporters do not want to leave the EU because _the evidence_ is that there is no benefit from doing so, there will almost certainly be some negatives (although not the extreme negatives that seem to be quoted more by 'leavers' than by 'remainers'), and there will definitely be at least some disruption if we leave with no withdrawal deal in place.

It is _not_ that we are 'scared' of change, it's that there is no point in going through _any_ negatives and/or disruption (well, no more than we are _already_ experiencing), however slight, if no genuine benefits can be seen to be likely to be achieved.

Your 'going to university analogy' is an extremely poor comparison. In that situation there is very clear evidence that there are real benefits from leaving home for the first time and going to university to study. There is uncertainty, and there will be problems that need to be overcome - but the potential benefits are clear to see.

All that leave supporters need to do in order to convince the majority of 'remainers' that we should go ahead and leave the EU is _provide evidence that there really are benefits from leaving that are realistic and outweigh the negatives._