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    #31
    Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
    And, when we have to rejoin the EU in a decade or so, all of our current opt outs will be off the table, so we'll be properly "in" then.
    Ultimately, I believe that this will be the long term outcome.

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      #32
      Thank you all again for a fair, polite and reasoned debate.
      I will not bore everyone by explaining why I disagree with some of the above (if not all) but thank you for interesting and well made arguments JP and Macromia. Have a look at Full Fact about the Irish border issue. There does not need to be a hard border. Norway (non EU) borders Sweden (EU) and it works - there is a very light touch at the border (occasional spot checks). If we want to do it we can do it. The problem is that our Remainer dominated Parliament does not want to - it sees the Irish issue as a way to thwart Brexit when in reality is a perfectly solvable problem if you wish to solve it!
      And as for employment law etc - this from Full Fact:
      "Not all EU employment rights were new to the UK when they were introduced. For instance, “protection against sex, race and disability discrimination in the UK pre-dated EU law”, according to a legal analysis for the TUC. And as the Prime Minister pointed out, in some cases UK law gives more rights than the EU minimum—giving 28 days’ paid holiday, for instance, where the EU demands at least 20."
      It is also true that much of our environmental protection goes beyond the EU's own and there is no reason why we will not continue to lead the way.
      I don't think that the words democratic and EU can really be used in the same sentence but you have had a good try Macromia!


      Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

      Comment


        #33
        I must admit to having no knowledge of what crosses the border between South and North, can anybody enlighten me? I imagine its just cattle! I would think the majority of the Souths exports would travel directly from Dublin to Liverpool. Can't be much checking needs doing at The North/South border I suspect.

        Comment


          #34
          Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
          There does not need to be a hard border. Norway (non EU) borders Sweden (EU) and it works - there is a very light touch at the border (occasional spot checks). If we want to do it we can do it.
          There are all sorts of potential options for the Northern Ireland/Ireland border, but which options are possible will be dependent on whatever deal is agreed between Ireland and the UK.

          Norway/Sweden is not a good example to use because the Northern Ireland/Ireland situation will be very different if we leave with no deal.
          While Norway is not in the EU, it is a member of the EEA and the Schengen Area. When there is free movement of people and most goods (I think that tariffs only apply to food imports), there is very little need for much border control.
          Norway style border checks will not work well if free movement of people and products has not been agreed.


          Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
          And as for employment law etc - this from Full Fact:
          "Not all EU employment rights were new to the UK when they were introduced. For instance, “protection against sex, race and disability discrimination in the UK pre-dated EU law”
          ...
          And as the Prime Minister pointed out, in some cases UK law gives more rights than the EU minimum—giving 28 days’ paid holiday, for instance, where the EU demands at least 20."
          It is also true that much of our environmental protection goes beyond the EU's own and there is no reason why we will not continue to lead the way.
          I agree that the UK already had protection for worker's and the environment, and that some UK laws covering these go further than the minimums required by EU laws. My point wasn't that these protections wouldn't exist without the EU.

          Leavers always tend to be arguing that leaving the EU will immediately open up trading opportunities with the rest of the world. Apart from the fact that we are already trading with pretty much every other nation, and the EU have already negotionated favourable trade deals with much of the world, or are in the middle of doing so, if the UK acts on it's own it will be in a far weaker negotiating position.
          The worker's rights and environmental protection laws are far weaker in the US and, as a far smaller economy, we are highly unlikely to be in any position to dictate terms of trade agreements. If we are going to agree trade deals with the US, we will likely have to accept that standards may be lower, and accept that their costs may be lower because of this and because the companies don't have to provide as much for their workers - and this leaves our own companies potentially less competitive.

          Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
          I don't think that the words democratic and EU can really be used in the same sentence but you have had a good try Macromia!
          In that case, I guess that you'd be willing to agree that the UK's system of government also can't be described as democratic?

          For EU laws to be passed they have to be agreed by both the European Parliament (directly elected representatives from each of the member states) and by the Council (ministers that were either directly elected as politicians in individual member states, or who were indirectly elected - i.e. chosen by the party who won elections in member states, like our Prime Minister).
          So EU laws need to be passed by both a directed body and an indirectly elected body representing member states.

          In the UK new laws require the approval of the directly elected House of Commons, the unelected House of Lords, and the unelected Head of State (the latter admittedly unlikely to be more than a formality).
          What makes the EU undemocratic if the UK system can be considered democratic?

          Comment


            #35
            Originally posted by Kape65 View Post
            Can't be much checking needs doing at The North/South border I suspect.
            How many people who voted leave do you think would consider it reasonable for them to be expected to show their passport, and have their luggage searched, when travelling between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK?

            If people are allowed to freely cross the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, it will be an easy way into the UK for anyone with an EU passport or EU goods if checks aren't introduced somewhere.

            We could leave the Northern Ireland/Ireland border open and put border checks between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK instead, but I don't think that'd go down well with the Northern Irish people.

            Comment


              #36
              The border between Northern and the Irish Republic is actually a unique problem.

              There are about 208 crossing points between the two countries - although there may be more (if only because the border runs along the middle of some roads).
              That's more than the crossing points along the entire EU's eastern border.

              When the main concern was security, during the "troubles" in Northern Ireland, the UK army simply blocked most of the crossing points, so they couldn't be used by road traffic and created inspection points at the main crossings that were manned and included regular inspections.

              As you can imagine, this went down really badly with the population who needed to travel across the border and opening the border was one of the main benefits of the Good Friday Agreement for most people.

              The hard border is going to be necessary for both the UK and the EU, because otherwise there's a huge issue with tariffs and collecting them. Assuming we leave the EU with no deal, the WTO default tariff for meat is over 40% and for dairy products its about 30%. So there's a lot of money to be collected or agreed/recorded at that border*.

              For the EU, the hard border is essential because, as a non-member of the EU, the UK's food and manufacturing standards will no longer be trusted (at least until some new treaties are signed). This would be taken care of by Theresa May's deal during the initial transition period, but a no deal exit doesn't cover it. As a consequence, the EU would have to inspect goods at the border, because, otherwise, once they're in the Republic of Ireland, there aren't any other checks as goods move around the EU. So the EU would regard the Irish border as an entry point into the EU, which is very different than an entry point between EU countries.

              It's not easy to know how that would work in practice, because it's almost unheard of. Most nations who trade with the EU have some sort of treaty or agreement on import standards, so they are trusted for customs purposes (the things being imported are what the documentation say they are and they have an agreed set of production standards). They're still inspected more frequently than EU produced goods, but almost no one trades without any treaty at all. It's just too difficult in practice.

              *For those who care about animal welfare, the use of the default WTO treaty is a disaster. Live animals carry a much lower tariff than meat, so there's a huge incentive to transport animals live and slaughter them closer to the point of sale. Assuming you're reconciled to killing animals for food, that adds a huge amount of suffering and stress into the animal's lifetime.

              And it would increase the workload of UK slaughterhouses, which is a separate problem as slaughterhouses have to have vets on the premises, and most of them are currently from the EU. Slaughterhouses are currently closing down because they can't find staff, which is already increasing costs to farmers.
              When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
              Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

              Comment


                #37
                I know the good folk here won't agree but I think a trade deal will be struck. As has been said by many Ministers and business people we are very well placed to move forward extremely quickly as our standards are already aligned. WTO rules would be on a Favoured Nation basis so the scare stories about 40% on meat etc don't hold. water. Remember that Ireland is not in Schengen either so that removes some of the issues involved. Off site inspection of goods at random is entirely possible. As I have said the border problem can be solved if there is a will to solve it. As for slaughter houses and vets that is correct but the vets being from the EU is a red herring - not only the EU produces vets! And as for the live animal export issue - it is a problem now and is being dealt with, This from April 18 :

                The UK has moved towards a ban on exporting live animals for slaughter after announcing a major review of laws regulating their transport.
                Environment secretary Michael Gove said that once Britain leaves the EU, the country could ban the export of thousands of live farm animals to mainland Europe. The policy would enjoy support from campaign groups pushing for a broad ban, amid rising anger over animals suffering terrible health problems and death as they are taken in trucks across the continent.

                As I have said if we have the will there is a way, but we have to have the will (which I think is lacking in Parliament now).
                Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                Comment


                  #38
                  Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
                  WTO rules would be on a Favoured Nation basis so the scare stories about 40% on meat etc don't hold. water
                  Despite the name, the whole point of the WTO's 'most-favored-nation' treatment is that (normally) every country must be treated equally.
                  https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e..._e/fact2_e.htm

                  Comment


                    #39
                    Stil not scared over here! As the article says "Some exceptions are allowed. For example, countries can set up a free trade agreement that applies only to goods traded within the group — discriminating against goods from outside."
                    I think what people forget is that all goods entering the EU from outside have tariffs on them - once these are paid then the goods can circulate within the EU without tariffs. We are already paying the tariffs at some point in the journey of imported goods from outside the EU.
                    Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                    Comment


                      #40
                      Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
                      I think what people forget is that all goods entering the EU from outside have tariffs on them - once these are paid then the goods can circulate within the EU without tariffs. We are already paying the tariffs at some point in the journey of imported goods from outside the EU.
                      This is correct - for some goods.
                      However, what I'd say is forgotten about more often is the fact that a large percentage of the imports into the EU come with very low tariffs or no tariff at all because the EU already has trade deals, including free trade deals.
                      If we are outside of the EU we can negotiate our own trade deals to replace all of the EU trade deals that we will lose, but do you really think that the UK will be able to negotiate many better trade deals than the EU considering the size of the markets?

                      We will be able to negotiate deals, there is no doubt about that, the questions concern how quickly we will be able to get these deals, and how favourable they will be to the UK.

                      Comment


                        #41
                        However did we manage before 1973?

                        BTW enjoy: https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/01...or-fulfilment/

                        Comment


                          #42
                          Originally posted by JK0 View Post
                          However did we manage before 1973?
                          We had trade deals with most of, if not all, of the countries that we traded with.

                          The world economic market has changed considerably in the last 40+ years though, and we hadn't had a need to negotiate all trade deals at the same time.

                          Comment


                            #43
                            Originally posted by Macromia View Post
                            We had trade deals with most of, if not all, of the countries that we traded with.

                            The world economic market has changed considerably in the last 40+ years though, and we hadn't had a need to negotiate all trade deals at the same time.
                            Then we should have been doing that in the last two years. Not faffing about with Europe.

                            Comment


                              #44
                              Originally posted by JK0 View Post

                              Then we should have been doing that in the last two years. Not faffing about with Europe.
                              You seem to be assuming that other countries are queuing up to arrange quick deals with the UK.
                              Unfortunately that isn't how things are.

                              Other countries will want trade deals with the UK, but they will all have their own conditions and none need to organise deals in a hurry.

                              A deal with the EU was by far the most important one to try and sort out, purely because we currently trade more with the EU than with anyone else.

                              Comment


                                #45
                                Originally posted by Macromia View Post

                                You seem to be assuming that other countries are queuing up to arrange quick deals with the UK.
                                Unfortunately that isn't how things are.

                                Other countries will want trade deals with the UK, but they will all have their own conditions and none need to organise deals in a hurry.

                                A deal with the EU was by far the most important one to try and sort out, purely because we currently trade more with the EU than with anyone else.
                                True, but they were always going to be the awkward sods, who wanted jam on any deal because we were quitting. We won't get anywhere with them until we actually do leave. Other countries, not so much.

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