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    Who mentioned Farage? Most countries in the world are NOT in the EU and still maange to get goods in and out of their countries quickly. It is this Stockholm Syndrome attitude which is so worrying to us Leavers...as for removing the "benefits" bring it on!
    Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

    Comment


      Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
      Who mentioned Farage? Most countries in the world are NOT in the EU and still manage to get goods in and out of their countries quickly.
      That's not at all true, which is helpful because it can be explained.

      Most countries are not in the EU, but there are (in most cases) trade deals in place between them which allow most goods to be moved between them with different rules for each.

      A reasonable example of that is if you go to Dover, where goods from the EU (with whom we have a free trade agreement) are processed differently than goods from China (where we have a trade agreement through the EU, but it's not "free trade"), which are processed differently than goods from places where we have a trade agreement on some, but not all, goods.

      The EU traffic is very lightly monitored (and mostly for people and drugs), almost all of it simply drives through. There's very little documentation required to bring any kind of goods through. That's just under half of everything the UK imports, but it's the vast majority of traffic in Dover. Any non-EU goods that have already passed through customs elsewhere in the EU also follows this route.

      The Chinese traffic is subject to more checks, quite a lot of documentation is required (usually completed before the goods leave China). There are a lot of checks to show that nothing has interfered with the items since they were checked - which in the case of many items is done in the factory or at the point of dispatch. At which point the goods are often sealed (the container physically secured) and, because the trade deal includes (for most of the major things we trade) agreements about quality, labelling and what checks China will guarantee happen, there's a degree of trust.

      Other nation goods have two processes, one for goods with a trade agreement and one for things where we don't have a trade agreement. For goods with a trade deal, there's a lot of documentation, lots of checks and it can be quite a slow process. There's a significant amount of payment to make to cover tariffs, so there can be delays to get cleared payment before something can move out of the customs area (because no one wants to pay in advance).

      Essentially the same process is followed in reverse when we ship things into these countries.

      If we aren't in the EU, if we leave with no deal, initially everything would go the non-trade deal route, because we'd have no trade deals in place. There would be customs duty to pay on pretty much everything and the admin would be vast. If we had a deal with the EU, the problems would be limited to countries outside the EU (so most of it, not all of it).

      There is zero chance we could cope.

      The Dutch have employed a thousand more customs officers to minimise the impact of a no deal brexit, but no one else has. The Dutch believe that they can contol the delays on stuff leaving (which is their biggest concern) from pretty much no delay (like now) to 24 or 48 hours. They have also complained that because the UK hasn't any corresponding plan, their actions are pointless, because everything will simply get stuck at the UK point of entry anyway.

      The UK will then be free to agree trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world to get back to the position we enjoy currenty with China (iun my example above). Trade deals "traditionally" take years and decades. Although we could speed things up by simply agreeing to whatever the other nations demand.

      Most counties have coped with five or six such negotiations at any one time - parallel agreements are complicated because most agreements include commitments not to offer other nations better terms on specific areas, so there's a huge amount of juggling and checking. That's one reason brexit is so difficult for the EU, because they can't offer the UK better terms than they've agreed with Norway and Switzerland (for example).

      And the end position would be similar to our trade with China now. Probably other than the EU, because countries tend to prioritise deals with their nearest neighbours, because you can install your own customs officers there more easily (which is how non EU countries get things in and out quickly).

      So in 20 years or so, we'd be in a position that's worse than now, but probably workable.

      When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
      Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

      Comment


        et voilà.....we cannot make trade deals because we are in the EU. We agreed not to do so during negotiations to leave which was a mistake of which there have been many. As someone who worked in Export for many years (including the first few in acutal shipping and documentation) I kind of get it, although I do not believe for one moment it would take so long - but then again I take the view that we can survive as a country without the EU clearly you believe we are totally incapable of doing so, which is sad. I am glad I am an optimistic manatee.
        Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

        Comment


          I believe we will survive.
          I'm not that pessimistic.

          I just don't see anything that will be better when we leave, and lots of things that will be worse.
          No one has actually produced a single prediction for what will be better than didn't turn out to be a lie or a mistake.
          Not a single one (that isn't intangible like "sovereignty" that no one can define or measure).

          Survival isn't my aspiration for my country and children.

          Not doing our own trade deals is one of the things that I see as a real benefit of being in the EU, because a) they're really hard to do and b) generally speaking the bigger the trade bloc the better the deal that's possible.
          The USA can't get it's meat and GM crops into the EU, but it would into the UK.

          That's not a criticism of the US meat or GM, just a prediction about the strength of the EU in negotiations against the strength of the UK alone.
          When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
          Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

          Comment


            Well I am not phased by doing things which are hard to do if they are the right thing to do. Once again we agree to differ
            Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

            Comment


              I'll ask again, in exchange for this hard to do thing, what do you or I get in exchange?

              I don't mind doing difficult things, but I resent it if there's no point.

              When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
              Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

              Comment


                Well clearly as sovereignty, self determination, democracy etc etc mean little to some, how about avoiding ever closer integration (including of tax etc) - this was the major issue which led to the Referendum...see this note from the HofC library from 2015:

                The Prime Minister has made removing “ever closer union” from the EU’s aims - or from the UK’s aims in the EU – a main theme of his proposed reform. He wrote in the Telegraph, 15 March 2014:
                And dealing properly with the concept of “ever closer union”, enshrined in the treaty, to which every EU country now has to sign up. It may appeal to some countries. But it is not right for Britain, and we must ensure we are no longer subject to it.
                He informed the Commons on 29 June 2015 of the June European Council and the UK’s reform proposals, saying
                We will put the Common Market back at the heart of our membership, get off the treadmill to ever-closer union, address the issue of migration to Britain from the rest of the EU and protect Britain’s place in the single market for the long term.
                It is not clear whether this will involve Treaty change in the longer term.

                Given the problems in the Eurozone, youth unemployment etc then we would do well to get out now. If anyone believes we will be able to continue to veto ever closer integration then I believe them to be very naive. Then there is the deeply worrying matter of the EU Army and all the other things some Remainers said would not happen. And the ability to spend our "contributions" where we want to not where we are told to when we get a % of them back. Then there is fact that I believe we can negotiate better trade deals than the EU with individual countires - the EU is bogged down by bureaucracy and keeping 27 member states happy with everything they negotiate - we can do better deals faster (I know you won't believe me JP but there it is). Mr Verhofstadt stated clearly and unambiguously that his aim is to make us a Colony of the EU - if we do not "join in" fully that is what we will always be. Our economic cycle does not always match that of Germany and France (nor do those of some other countries clearly) and we need control of our own economy - a control which will be increasingly eroded. So what will be better if we leave? Quite a bit in my view. I know you will disagree JP and respect your view but this is mine, having worked in international trade for many years, living in 2 European countries and speaking 2 European languages (plus learning a third...). I am not a "little Englander" but I believe Leave is right for our country. Yes it will be hard to disentangle ourselves but we disentangle ourselves we must.
                Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                Comment


                  Thank you (as usual) for taking the trouble to explain your views.

                  You're right that I don't agree with a lot of what you say (and I know you think I'm wrong about a lot as well), but at least you have reasonable opinions and can articulate them, which is not something many people on either side of the debate have or can do.

                  It's not rational to try and discuss things we're predicting will happen where we disagree, because my views aren't any better than yours, just different, and one of us will turn out to be right, or we'll both be wrong and something else will happen entirely, time will tell. But I do think the EU army thing is a red herring.

                  There's a risk that the USA will pull out of NATO (it costs them a fortune and the USA doesn't really expect Russia to invade Western Europe any more, and, even if it did, it doesn't care that much). So a European army might be a result of that happening, but, otherwise, it's just redundant.

                  We already have NATO, which has standardised and compatible equipment (or is at least meant to have) and communicates in English.

                  Creating another version is pointless because it couldn't deviate from the NATO standards even if you wanted to. You can't have armies using different weapons and ammunition depending on which organisation they were fighting for at that point.

                  Which is an ironic problem if you're the EU - you can't do something because the rules and standards of the larger international organisation won't let you.
                  When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                  Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Macromia View Post

                    Yes it is - but it's also what I would say when there is very obviously no conspiracy to be part of, or ignorant of.
                    The truly ignorant people are usually those who don't know enough to know that the sort of conspiracy that they are suggesting is impossible.
                    Yeah, you already made that point, but I believe you are mistaken. Have a look at the first five minutes of this video:


                    Comment


                      I could only make it to 3 minutes 48 seconds.

                      He's using "Rothchild" and "Soros" as indicators of the Jewish conspiracy (that runs the world) and is, otherwise talking a mixture of half truths (there is a club of Rome, which is a think tank, for example) combined with nonsense.

                      That he believes in a Jewish conspiracy isn't surprising as he's previously said he believes in The Protocols of the Elders of Zion (which is a notorious anti-semitic forgery)

                      There is a global scientific consensus that climate change is real and threatens our planet. If you seriously believe that the United Nations is part of a conspiracy involving Jewish "bankers" to run the world, you might have reason to be concerned about its involvement in that consensus, but I'm not.

                      This is David Icke (and normally I don't like quoting Wikipedia, but nonetheless)...

                      "He believes that an inter-dimensional race of reptilian beings called the Archons (or Anunnaki) have hijacked the earth and that a genetically modified human–Archon hybrid race of shape-shifting reptilians, also known as the "Babylonian Brotherhood", the Illuminati, or the 'elite', manipulate global events to keep humans in constant fear so the Archons can feed off the 'negative energy' this creates". Included in the members of this lizard race are the royal family (particularly the queen mother) and Ted Heath.

                      "[He] suggests that the Earth and collective human mind are manipulated from the Moon, a spacecraft and inter-dimensional portal the reptilians control. The Moon Matrix is a broadcast from that spacecraft to the human body–computer, specifically to the left hemisphere of the brain, which gives us our sense of reality."

                      When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                      Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                      Comment


                        Nice bit of diversion JPK. Ridicule the guy's previous statements, so he must be talking nonsense now.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by JK0 View Post
                          Nice bit of diversion JPK. Ridicule the guy's previous statements, so he must be talking nonsense now.
                          If he had at any point said, you know what, all that stuff about aliens turns out to have been a mistake and I know believe this instead, it would indeed be an unfair diversion on my part.

                          But he hasn't and he continues to assert that we are mind controlled from the moon by reptilian aliens.

                          His other assertions are based on that supposition, so anything he says is nonsense.
                          It's possible that something he says might coincide with our reality - if he were to notice it was raining and say so.
                          But he believes that the rain is a function of an artificially constructed reality so it's only happening in our minds anyway.

                          The man is either a clever fraud and doesn't believe a lot of what he says, or he does and must be mentally unbalanced.
                          When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                          Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by JK0 View Post

                            Yeah, you already made that point, but I believe you are mistaken. Have a look at the first five minutes of this video:

                            OK, I've watched just over 12 minutes of a mad man spewing demonstrably false drivel.
                            What was your point?

                            Climate change is real. Human activities are a significant factor in the current global warming trend. There is no conspiracy.
                            The only genuine debate is over what the effects will be if we don't take action, and whether we are able to chance the warming trend. Denying that human activity is affecting the planets climate is like arguing that the planet is a flat disk orbited by a sun that is much smaller than the Earth and a moon made of green cheese.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Macromia View Post

                              OK, I've watched just over 12 minutes of a mad man spewing demonstrably false drivel.
                              What was your point?

                              Climate change is real. Human activities are a significant factor in the current global warming trend. There is no conspiracy.
                              The only genuine debate is over what the effects will be if we don't take action, and whether we are able to chance the warming trend. Denying that human activity is affecting the planets climate is like arguing that the planet is a flat disk orbited by a sun that is much smaller than the Earth and a moon made of green cheese.
                              Durr. That you have not demonstrated there is not a conspiracy. And if we are discussing 'climate change' you and JPK refuse to watch the whole video.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by JK0 View Post

                                Durr. That you have not demonstrated there is not a conspiracy. And if we are discussing 'climate change' you and JPK refuse to watch the whole video.
                                You haven't demonstrated that there is a conspiracy, which is where the burden of proof really lies.
                                Conspiracy theories, especially global 'conspiracies' that would require millions of people, including those in governments from all over the world, to be working together, are extraordinary claims that can basically be rejected if they aren't supported by evidence.
                                By their very nature conspiracy theories don't have evidence - they are based on claims that either (1) the evidence that would 'prove' that the claims being made are true is being hushed up, or (2) that evidence supporting contrary positions has been falsified, meaning that the conspiracy theorists won't accept anything that contradicts what they believe. Sometimes both apply.

                                As for watching the entire video...
                                Firstly I didn't "refuse to watch the whole video" and, secondly, I watched over twice as much of the video that you told me to:
                                Originally posted by JK0 View Post
                                Have a look at the first five minutes of this video:
                                The first 5 minutes of the video basically contain nothing more than David Icke saying the following:
                                1. There are 'think tanks' that have been set up around the world.
                                2. Some of these think tanks discuss things that they consider to be global issues and produce solutions that require governments around the world to work together.
                                3. For some unspecified reason we should treat these think tanks and their suggested global policies as an attempt to scam people and reject the claims that are made.

                                What is wrong with think tanks being set up where people with experience and knowledge in certain areas get together to discuss potential issues?
                                If there are issues that are considered to affect the population of the world, or that need people in different parts of the wold to work together to achieve a goal, what is wrong with that?

                                And how the hell do you think that it would be possible to get pretty much every single government in the world, and 97% of the world's scientists who actually study the issues, to 'pretend' that human affected climate change is actually happening?
                                Seriously, how many people do you think you would need to 'pay off' to achieve this, and where do you think all that money would come from?

                                As for "if we were discussing climate change",..
                                If the last 5 minutes of the video don't show David admitting that everything that he has said about climate change prior to that point is blatantly untrue, and then giving an entirely different argument, there really is no point in watching it - the claims that he makes between 05:00 and just after 12:00 are sufficient basis on which to reject his position because he is either knowingly lying or severely misinformed. For instance, no one with any genuine knowledge about climate change is ingrate of the fact that there are factors other than carbon dioxide levels that influence global temperatures, climate change models do take solar cycles into account, and global temperatures have continued to rise despite the fact that solar activity has been in decline so we should currently be seeing cooling.
                                Scientists openly discuss all of this.

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