Brexit

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    The choice is now one of three things.

    We leave without a deal at 11PM on 29th March.
    That's the default as we've already told the EU that, and they can't do anything to change it unless we ask.
    There's nothing needed to make that happen*.

    We can ask the EU to postpone the date and all 27 members have to agree.
    Current thinking seems to be that they may not agree without something in exchange.
    As far as I know, the government can do that without a vote in parliament, but we're going to need one to make anything happen.

    We can revoke the article 50 notification unilaterally.
    That has to be unequivocal, so there can't be any terms linked to it (like we're only doing it so we can do it later).
    That does require a vote in parliament because it previously voted to submit the notification and nothing can reverse a parliamentary vote except another one.

    *Which does mean that voting not to leave with no deal actually means parliament is voting not to leave unless they then vote for the governments deal.
    When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
    Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

    Comment


      Article 50 allows for a negotiated withdrawal, due to the complexities of leaving the EU.
      However, it does include in it a strong implication of a unilateral right to withdraw.
      This is through the fact that a state would decide to withdraw "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements".
      The end of the treaties' application in a member state that intends to withdraw is not dependent on any agreement being reached.

      The current problem being that "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements".

      Our 'constitutional requirements' are that any withdrawal deal is approved by Parliament.

      This is not the EU's problem - as far as the EU rules are concerned we can leave without a deal.
      This will happen by default on 29th March. (Unless we ask for an extension and the EU agree, or we withdraw our notice under Article 50).

      But as far as the UK constitution is concerned we can't leave the EU without a deal (or even with a deal) unless Parliament agree to it.
      And Parliament cannot currently agree.

      It's entirely a UK constitutional crisis brough about by the Governments insistence on doing things without consulting Parliament.
      https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ope...t-doesnt-work/

      Comment


        A glimmer of hope! I've just read an article on the BBC website that says todays vote on a no deal only applies to the 29th March deadline and doesn't rule out a no deal exit after that.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Kape65 View Post
          A glimmer of hope! I've just read an article on the BBC website that says todays vote on a no deal only applies to the 29th March deadline and doesn't rule out a no deal exit after that.
          I just read the article and yes indeed a glimmer of hope. The best thing that could happen in my world is that the EU simply refuse to extend A50. Then we leave without a deal and voila - problem solved! The thing is that the EU really do not want us to send MEPs in May...they have said that Eurosceptic parties may "hijack" the process (for hijack read "be democratically elected"). It is still all to play for although I would be more optimistic as a remainer than I am as a leaver...
          Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

          Comment


            If we stay in we have to be represented, the EU's own rules force that.
            The EU wants us to stay, so they need us to have the elections.

            They're concerned about eurosceptic MPs, but they're used to that - they're going to get a load more from Hungary and Poland anyway next time.
            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

            Comment


              Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
              The best thing that could happen in my world is that the EU simply refuse to extend A50. Then we leave without a deal and voila - problem solved!
              Not really, that would still leave the problem of Parliament being 'railroaded' by the Government, against Parliments wishes as expressed in multiple votes.

              TBH I see that as more what the current problems are about, rather than the issue of leaving itself.
              The government are not supposed to be able to force things through without the majority approval of Parliament.

              (We all know that they do, but that's usually because MPs can't be bothered to turn up and vote. In this case MP's don't have that option if they want to have any hope of keeping their seats).

              Comment


                Interested Nukecad about your view of the will of the people? And the fact that 80% of MPs were elected on a Leave manifesto...Parliamanent is not being railroaded by the Government but should be delivering on its promises. The big problem in my mind is the disconntect between the people and their MPs
                Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                Comment


                  I see that as two seperate issues.

                  The Government can't pass or change legislation without Parliaments agreement.

                  Once you elect your MP it's up to their conscience how they vote in Parliament.

                  If your MP is not doing what you want then you regularly get the chance to change them.

                  Comment


                    No MP in any major party has ever been elected on a leave manifesto.

                    Last election, the Article 50 notification had already been sent, so there were no manifesto promises about Leave, because we'd already agreed to leave.
                    Both the two major parties made promises about negotiation approaches, with the Tories promising that the transition would be "orderly" (ha ha).
                    But they were simply addressing reality, which is that we were already leaving.

                    The one before that, the Tories promised a referendum, which they delivered.

                    If we're going to start holding people to their manifestos, the leave manifesto for the referendum said that we would negotiate the terms of a new deal before we started any process to leave.
                    So we should never have triggered article 50 at all before we had agreed our new terms.

                    The government was insane to suggest that and parliament was stupid to agree to it.
                    It makes it a) impossible to negotiate a reasonable deal and b) has possibly killed Brexit, which means that the referendum result isn't being honoured.

                    When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                    Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                    Comment


                      I believe that the early triggering of Article 50 was a panic move, probably because of the closeness of the referendum result.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
                        Interested Nukecad about your view of the will of the people? And the fact that 80% of MPs were elected on a Leave manifesto...Parliamanent is not being railroaded by the Government but should be delivering on its promises. The big problem in my mind is the disconntect between the people and their MPs
                        Have you come across this website, Islandgirl? I think he is brilliant:

                         MPs finally put the May Withdrawal Agreement into a lead lined-coffin yesterday. Today they will reject the best way to leave the EU because of largely mythical fear created by MSM and internet IABATO. The best way forward after that will be a General Election. Just watch our legislators avoid that option for as long…

                        Comment


                          Will give that a good read JKO - on a brief look it looks very interesting! Thank you
                          Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by JK0 View Post

                            Have you come across this website, Islandgirl? I think he is brilliant:
                            The writer actually has a way with words and has written a blog that makes interesting reading - although it is almost entirely a work of fiction (admittedly loosely based on reality).
                            It will appeal to many leave voters because, when the lack of any real substance is ignored, the way it is written lends itself very well to confirmation of their existing biases.

                            The one thing that we can probably all agree on is that the entire Brexit debacle has been a fiasco from the start - although it is unlikely that there would be much agreement regarding what makes that the case.

                            Comment


                              It was an excellent blog post with plenty of substance (unless you are too blinkered by your existing biases to see it). I entirely agree that the whole thing has been a fiasco and continues to be so
                              Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
                                It was an excellent blog post with plenty of substance
                                What substance?

                                In the introduction two claims are made:
                                1. That a no deal Brexit is the best way forward.
                                2. That, if no deal is taken off the table (and it was voted against - whatever that actually means), the best option will be to put a new government in place.

                                The only thing in the blog that can even vaguely be considered an attempt to justify 1 is a passing comment along the lines of "they need us more than we need them, so they should be begging us for a deal". This is the same regularly repeated nonsense that is never justified.

                                Nothing even comes close to even seeming to support 2. Since there don't seem to be any politicians in the UK with a passable idea of how Brexit could be delivered, let alone a majority, how would a new government help?

                                Comment

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