Brexit

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    I think we have actually found something we agree on JP!
    Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

    Comment


      Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
      The conservative party is going to have to finally split on this.
      Probably just ahead of the Labour party.
      Then perhaps the brexit issue is going to have at least one positive outcome, whichever way it goes.

      Many would say that the main parties have become too entrenched, and accustomed to their respective positions.
      'Entrenched' being the operative word, just like in WW1 everything is stuck in one place with a few small attacks and a lot of sniping going on.

      The 'leaders' are still doing very comfortably thank you, the 'quartermasters' are making a fortune, the rank and file are paying the price.

      Being an MP has become a career rather than a duty. (There are some notable exceptions).

      A good shake up to break the deadlock will be painful for everybody, and there will be casualties on the front line and elsewhere.
      But sometimes it's what is needed, and hopefully when the smoke clears we will be in a better place with better leaders.

      'May you live in interesting times' indeed.

      Comment


        Can't argue with any of that.
        Just hope we don't do the country serious damage while things adjust.

        When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
        Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

        Comment


          Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
          Just hope we don't do the country serious damage while things adjust.
          Yep.

          One of the things that 'leave' voters often say is that the country managed without being part of the EU, and will survive after leaving.
          I have never spoken to anyone who has expressed disagreement with this.

          Of course we will survive outside of the EU, realistically there has never been any doubt regarding that. The issue has nevsr been whether or not we will manage/survive, the issue is what the effect will be on standards of living.

          People living in third world countries who live in tiny, crudely built shelters in shanty towns, have to walk miles each day to collect water (often not even clean water), and live almost permanently in hunger survive.
          Obviously we aren't going to suffer anything anywhere near as extreme as that, but for some people (perhaps even the majority, if things are really bad) there is likely to be a reduction in standards of living, at least for a time, with very careful thought having to be given as to whether or not so called 'luxury' purchases can be made or holidays had.
          Some people in the UK were in this situation before the Brexit vote was even had, and for them it may mean more reliance on welfare and food banks.

          Hopefully, any initial problems with customs that might hold up the import/export of goods will be sorted out within a matter of weeks, a few months at the most, but it will take far longer to make trade details and start to build up the UK's economy again - the question is:
          Will it take years for the UK economy to get to where it would likely be if we remained in the EU, or will it take decades?

          Comment


            or, after an extremely short period of adjustment, will our economy be better than it would have been if we were shackled to the EU?
            Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

            Comment


              Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
              or, after an extremely short period of adjustment, will our economy be better than it would have been if we were shackled to the EU?
              There is one thing that we can be absolutely certain about, and that is that it won't be a short period of adjustment.

              Trade deals with other nations will not be sorted out quickly, and, even though we should be able to trade with everyone we want to in the meantime, this will have an effwct on trade, jobs and the economy.

              Comment


                Originally posted by islandgirl View Post
                or, after an extremely short period of adjustment, will our economy be better than it would have been if we were shackled to the EU?
                There is literally no way that this can happen.

                There is not a single person on the planet with any kind of plan to bring this into being or who can even offer a sequence of possible events or scenarios that could bring about this result.

                I would love to see any evidence that the UK outside the EU can possibly be (in any way), economically better off.

                It's not easy to counter arguments that are ephemeral and aspirational (sovereignty or getting the country back).
                But the idea that we're going to be better off should have some kind of underlying expectation of how things will pan out.

                So far, every expert making any forecast has said that we're worse off under every possible exit scenario.
                Bar one, who works for the ERG - who only thinks that some industries (like farming) will be wiped out but that international trade will compensate.
                When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                Comment


                  Fair enough but as you might imagine I am far more optimistic - and with family links to farming I am not worried. Time will tell...but only if we get a good clean Brexit and not a partial fudge. That will be a disaster.
                  Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                  Comment


                    This is interesting. This is former Junior Brexit Minister Steve Baker who resigned after the Chequers debacle, being interviewed by the European Scrutiny Committee.

                    https://parliamentlive.tv/event/inde...42?in

                    Comment


                      Something that has come to light during this time is the need of a lot of company's to acquire items from abroad that could be made here. This really needs to be addressed if nothing else but to help the environment. Why are we buying handle bars for bikes from Germany when we can make them. Biscuits and other stuff. This country can make all the stuff.
                      Mrs Dingle

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Mrs Dingle View Post
                        SWhy are we buying handle bars for bikes from Germany when we can make them. Biscuits and other stuff. This country can make all the stuff.
                        Often because the handle bar manufacturer supplies lots of different countries and can do that from a relatively central location.

                        Taking that specific example, a manufacturer of handle bars supplying UK firms would have a very limited market, there are only so many people in the UK to sell them to.
                        So it would have to either charge more for them, making them less competetive along with making their customer's products either more expensive or less profitable,
                        To compete with the German manufacturer in the rest of the world, it would need tariffs to be the same (or less) as the German tariffs with it's target markets.
                        As EU tariffs are zero internally, it would have to have negotiated a similar tariff with the EU to compete there, for example.

                        Without a negotiation, the base WTO tariff would be (I think) 8% as the items are made of aluminium.
                        We don't have any aluminium in the UK, so we'd have to import it, and again, that would need a trade deal, otherwise there would be a tariff on the import (which the German firm probably wouldn't pay as the EU has a trade deal to cover that import already).

                        Then there's the parallel issue of the investment needed to set up such a manufacturing facility and the willingness of British people to work in a factory.

                        Economics and capitalists are brutal.
                        If there was money to be made by making handle bars in the UK, that would happen.

                        As for the environmental impact, how can adding more factories with more ships and lorries delivering raw materials and finished goods to the planet be a positive?
                        When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                        Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                        Comment


                          This was reported on bloomberg 9 Feb 2019 :

                          " The U.K. canceled a 13.8 million pound ($18 million) contract with Seaborne Freight, a startup company that doesn’t own any ships, to deliver backup ferry service in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Lawmakers had criticized the contract award.

                          The deal was scrapped when “it became clear Seaborne would not reach its contractual requirements with the government,” the Department for Transport said in statement on Saturday. A department spokesman said the government is in talks with several companies to secure additional freight capacity, including through the Port of Ramsgate."

                          I think those "handle bars" will be held up at Ostend dockside waiting for the ferry to Ramsgate.

                          Comment


                            Apart from the obvious issues of awarding a contract to a made up company with no ferries, which subsequently failed to pay anything to keep the port open so it was shut down, no one seems to have noticed something obvious.

                            If there was a need for additional ferries such that the government was prepared to pay £13.8m to someone to supply them, now that contract has been cancelled, where are the additional ferries we're relying on going to come from?
                            Where's the replacement contract?

                            And a supplementary, who keeps giving Chris Grayling jobs in government?
                            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                            Comment


                              Although I agree about Grayling I think we now realize there is no need for the additional ferries so this is a win win.
                              Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

                              Comment


                                I never saw any need for additonal ferries.

                                Was there suddenly going to be more lorries trying to make a ferry crossing?
                                Not unless they close customs at the tunnel.

                                Nope - it's customs posts that might be short, not ferries.
                                Doesn't matter how many ferries you have if the wagons can't drive off them and through customs.

                                Comment

                                Latest Activity

                                Collapse

                                Working...
                                X