Scrapping of s21 postponed

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    #16
    Originally posted by 123Landlord View Post

    I've served a NoSP recently
    What is a NoSP, please?

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      #17
      I'm guessing "Notice Seeking Possession".
      I am not a lawyer, nor am I licensed to provide any regulated advice. None of my posts should be treated as legal or financial advice.

      I do not answer questions through private messages which should be posted publicly on the forum.

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        #18
        Apologies - Notice of Seeking Possession.

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          #19
          Originally posted by Perce View Post
          TF knew that his audience most probably never served an eviction notice so don’t know that it is not registered anywhere.
          Hmmm .... I never underestimate the role pf incompetence in politics!

          Comment


            #20
            Originally posted by ChrisDennison View Post

            That’s exactly the comment I made in another thread recently. Nobody knows how many s21 and s8 are issued each day because they are a private instrument and aren’t (and will likely never be) centrally lodged.

            It’s all estimates of course, they say there are x mio tenancies, typically lasting y period of time, this means z number of tenancies end each month, of those typically a % are ended by the landlord, therefore typically b number of s21 and c number of s8 are issued.

            How accurate this is could be anyone’s guess. The only thing we know for a fact is how many repo claims are lodged with the courts.

            jpkeates is the expert on statistics in this forum

            Can I assume there's agreement on this forum that it's a very important statistic considering recent and current debate? Do you know any organisation representing landlords that publishes an estimate? If I was putting together a list of 'key messages' this would be one. It would go something like this:

            Of the xx estimated section 21 notices served each year (so called 'no reason given' evictions), xx (xx%) result in households moving into suitable alternative accommodation at the end of the notice period. That is, without the need to go to court. All of these tenancies are at least as long or longer than the original agreed length of the tenancy.

            I'd finesse it so it sounded better, but you get the point. Is this being said anywhere?

            You will have picked up my other 'key message' - I think we as a sector need an alternative way to describe S21 notices.

            Increasingly I think data is so important in having sensible conversations about all this stuff, and therefore (hopefully) sensible outcomes. I think rent arears is such a distinct issue from other reasons why a tenancy might come to an end. And then within rent arrears there are 2 distinct sub-issues 1) the tenant not being able to pay the rent - i.e. affordability and 2) the tenants wilfully not paying the rent. Unfortunately landlords are in a bit of a pickle here; we've been using the S21 system quite happily, but now it's being challenged, we find it can't give us the data to either prove it works or outline a successful alternative.

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              #21
              Originally posted by 123Landlord View Post


              Can I assume there's agreement on this forum that it's a very important statistic considering recent and current debate? Do you know any organisation representing landlords that publishes an estimate?
              There's some research in House of Commons briefings (some of which is supplied by landlord associations)
              https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...cdp-2018-0258/
              and
              https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-8658/


              One says that 10% of tenants who'd moved in the last three years did so because their landlord asked them to leave.
              Assuming that equates to some kind of notice, that's about 80-100,000 tenants per annum where a landlord gives notice - applying the percentages to the annual churn numbers.

              Coincidentally, there are about 90-100,000 possession claims in a normal year.

              So my feeling is that the majority s21 notices end in court.

              They're so localised, that loads of places have no possession claims in any given quarter, and London Boroughs like Newham serve the majority of all possession claims (and, I suspect, issue the majority of s21 notices).

              The vast majority of tenancies are ended by the tenant, so you're dealing with the minority of cases.

              There's a quite alarming correlation between regions with high number of possession claims under s21 and regions with the highest annual increases in average rent.
              Which kind of answers the question, why would a landlord want to evict a good rent paying tenant?
              When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
              Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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                #22
                Back when I Was renting, the Section 21 really annoyed me, as I would get them in the post along with the renewal offer.

                It became a bullying technique of, "no, we are not letting you go periodic and here's the new agreement with the higher rent and worse conditions for you and of course our agency fees. Please pay up"

                No idea how much that goes on any more, but certainly that sullied my opinion of the Section 21 back in the day. I've got to wonder how many other tenants have experienced similar and this have similar thoughts.

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                  #23
                  ExpertInAField I can certainly see a lot of this stuff from tenants' perspectives. I remember as a renter being seriously affronted when my LL came round to have a chat with us about putting up the rent. Of course he had every right to do but I didn't know that and he could probably have approached it in a better way.

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                    #24
                    Preceding posts both relevant to other recent discussions.

                    Originally posted by ExpertInAField View Post
                    Back when I Was renting, the Section 21 really annoyed me, as I would get them in the post along with the renewal offer.
                    As per https://forums.landlordzone.co.uk/fo...th-new-tenancy

                    Originally posted by 123Landlord View Post
                    I remember as a renter being seriously affronted when my LL came round to have a chat with us about putting up the rent.
                    As per https://forums.landlordzone.co.uk/fo...isting-tenants
                    There is a fine line between irony and stupidity. If I say something absurd please assume that I am being facetious.

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                      #25
                      jpkeates - thanks for the information.

                      So the data's woefully inadequate then! It all seems very muddled - with private LL S21 and S8 standard procedure claims being counted together, then S21 accelerated possessions by Private and Social LLs being counted together! Are there any assumptions we can make to separate these figures?

                      In the first document (CBP-8658) it says accelerated possessions by Private and Social LLs) increased from 2011 - could this be the result of the Localism Act explained by earlier contributors to this discussion? That is to say, the increase in use of S21 is from the social rented sector not private landlords at all? Seems a bit of a coincidence.

                      My numbers don't tally with yours for S21 notices that go to court, any chance you could take a look and give me your thoughts? All figures from CBP-8658):
                      I make the number of voids for 16/17 1,126,000 (860,000 moves within the sector and 266,000 moves out of the sector).
                      If 10% of these were served notice that's 112,600 (we don't know what type of notice, but I'm going to assume they're all S21 for this exercise).
                      We know in 2017 there were 21,439 standard possession orders (this includes S8 and S21 notices, but let's assume it's just S21).
                      We know in 2017 there were 29,601 accelerated possession orders (this includes social as well as private tenancies, but lets assume it's just private).
                      With these assumptions (which I know makes the data pretty poor) that would mean only 51,040 out of 112,600 notices went to court (45%). So most S21 notices DON'T go to court. This supports my personal gut feeling - although I'd guess at not more than 35%.

                      I ask myself the question, why would anyone not move out when they got a notice? I think there's such a wide range of tenants in the PRS, for some a S21 notice is probably little more than an inconvenience, while at the other end of the spectrum for some tenants it's close to the end of the world, and lots of other people in between.

                      Why would anyone go to court if they didn't have to? Of course a number of tenants are required to go through this process by the local authority, so they can be dealt with as 'homeless'. End of AST is given as a reason for homelessness in 18,270 of cases in 2016/17. This includes social tenancies, so less than 16% of S21 notices lead to a homelessness duty. The JRF report links this figure to rent arrears or affordability in 57% of cases - there may be things we can improve as a sector but affordability isn't one of them!

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by boletus View Post

                        It seems they can, at least a lot more than I thought.

                        A bit more about it here (I didn't really know either);

                        https://www.localgovernmentlawyer.co...ocial-landlord
                        Doesn't this link bring into question everything about S21 reform? If it's no longer government policy to provide lifetime tenancies in the social rented sector (maybe someone can confirm if this is still the case) surely it can't be government policy to provide lifetime tenancies in the private rented sector???!!! If you don't have a tenancy forever the only alternative is to have it for a fixed term. If you have a fixed term tenancy, the end of that fixed term must be a ground for possession. Am I missing something?

                        Comment


                          #27
                          There is a strong (and more organised and powerful) lobby from social landlords for a section 21 ban only to be for private landlords.

                          https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/comm...andlords-63790

                          A ban on no-fault evictions will not provide positive outcomes if it is applied to the social housing sector

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                            #28
                            Originally posted by 123Landlord View Post
                            So the data's woefully inadequate then! It all seems very muddled - with private LL S21 and S8 standard procedure claims being counted together, then S21 accelerated possessions by Private and Social LLs being counted together! Are there any assumptions we can make to separate these figures?
                            Well, until recently, my understanding was that s21 accelerated possessions and s21 notices generally were mostly private landlords - because most social housing used ATs not ASTs, so s21 wasn't available.

                            But that no longer seems to be so clear cut.

                            In the first document (CBP-8658) it says accelerated possessions by Private and Social LLs) increased from 2011 - could this be the result of the Localism Act explained by earlier contributors to this discussion? That is to say, the increase in use of S21 is from the social rented sector not private landlords at all? Seems a bit of a coincidence.
                            Some of the changes in the localism act would make ASTs more appealing to social landlords, I guess.
                            So that makes s21 available to them, so they'd use it.
                            My numbers don't tally with yours for S21 notices that go to court, any chance you could take a look and give me your thoughts? All figures from CBP-8658)

                            I make the number of voids for 16/17 1,126,000 (860,000 moves within the sector and 266,000 moves out of the sector).
                            If 10% of these were served notice that's 112,600 (we don't know what type of notice, but I'm going to assume they're all S21 for this exercise).
                            There are good stats once the notices get to the point of a court claim.
                            They're here - https://www.gov.uk/government/collec...ion-statistics


                            We know in 2017 there were 21,439 standard possession orders (this includes S8 and S21 notices, but let's assume it's just S21).
                            We know in 2017 there were 29,601 accelerated possession orders (this includes social as well as private tenancies, but lets assume it's just private).
                            With these assumptions (which I know makes the data pretty poor) that would mean only 51,040 out of 112,600 notices went to court (45%). So most S21 notices DON'T go to court. This supports my personal gut feeling - although I'd guess at not more than 35%.
                            Those figures look off.
                            The stats for 2017 are:
                            Period Claims Orders Warrants Bailiffs
                            Jan/Mar 35188 26009 17936 9730
                            Apr/Jun 32077 25195 16018 8819
                            Jul/Sept 34172 25266 16935 8806
                            Oct/Dec 31213 24659 15528 8463
                            Total 132650 101129 66417 35818









                            So, my feeling is that a significant proportion of notices served end up in court.
                            But we're still comparing hard stats from the courts with an estimate of notices actually served.

                            The stats also have a split between social and private landlords, which is moving from being 2/3rds social landlords to closer to 50:50 over time.

                            I ask myself the question, why would anyone not move out when they got a notice? I think there's such a wide range of tenants in the PRS, for some a S21 notice is probably little more than an inconvenience, while at the other end of the spectrum for some tenants it's close to the end of the world, and lots of other people in between.
                            I suspect that some tenants just can't move out in time.
                            When the default notice period is 2 months, that's just not enough time to find somewhere, get approved etc and move.
                            And there's likely to be an issue for a lot of tenants with finding a deposit before the current one is returned.

                            Another possibility which can be overlooked is that these hearings are very different in different regions - so rapidly increasing rents are a factor. Tenants are being moved out so richer ones can move in.
                            If you're being moved out because you can't afford the higher rent being demanded, your next property is going to be somewhere else or smaller.
                            When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                            Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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