Abolishing s21 - new government proposal

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    #16
    Originally posted by leaseholder64 View Post
    One of the questions is whether to allow an accelerated S8G1 (Q29). Also there are questions on reducing the notice period below two months (Q10 and Q11), and reducing the time before the option can be exercised (Q7, 8 and 9) (currently not during fixed tenancy). There seems to be scope for fine tuning S8G1 that might be influenced by the consultation.
    That's a fair point (they ask similar in Q14 re the selling ground). But why propose the 2 years in the first place if they intend changing it? Those responding to this will be militant tenants and tenant groups and pro landlords, accidental landlords by definition won't respond.

    The homeless issue cancels out, because one person ends up homeless, either way.
    No it won't, because many people working away will decide to leave their property empty or leave the family behind if it's made very difficult to get their property back.

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      #17
      The timescales are very different. Exercising S8G1 makes someone become homeless now, whereas not letting it out n the first place means someone never got a home to loose. The actual loss of the home is traumatic.

      If there were a working market, a property with a right to S8G1 ought to have a significantly lower rent than one without, but I suspect that is not the case, and with the proposed removal of the requirement to have previously lived there, people will start enabling S8G1 as a standard part of their agreements.

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        #18
        Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
        Leaving aside councils (who I think should be providing housing to those who need it), I don't see any agents and corporations moving into the sector (although, possibly I wouldn't notice), other than for student accommodation.
        Whilst I don't believe the conspiracy theory that the legislation is deliberately favouring such organisations, nonetheless, in outer London, I see several developments, near tubs stations, which are being built to let, rather than built for buy to let. They tend to be run by private companies, so I don't know if that counts as "big corporations".

        My suspicion is that they will attract the the more affluent, relatively low risk, young professional tenants, but we may well have to wait for the 2021 census to get a good idea of the demographics, even assuming that they are identifiable as enumeration areas.

        (I say built for but to let, as it seems that a lot of new flats, before this recent trend, were being sold to but to let landlords, rather than to owner occupiers. The developers have probably realised that they were missing out on a long term revenue stream, so are cutting out those buy new to let landlords.)

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          #19
          Originally posted by AndrewDod
          I think rents are very far from being constrained by income. As landlords become more selective and the market shrinks, tenants who can pay more are going to have the edge on getting anywhere decent to stay at all. Being able to demonstrate substantial assets is going to become an essential attribute for a prospective tenant.
          I think it will be more that the good landlords will apply market forces and get the profitable tenants and the mediocre ones will be left with the poor tenants. I can't see them leaving property void, in the long term, and the only people they will be able to sell to will be owner occupiers, which I think would generally be a good thing.

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            #20
            I corrected some spelling and my post was abolished as usual......

            Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
            Leaving aside councils (who I think should be providing housing to those who need it), I don't see any agents and corporations moving into the sector (although, possibly I wouldn't notice), other than for student accommodation.

            Rents are reasonably high, and they're capped by income as much as supply and demand, so you'd think, if this was going to happen, it would already be happening.
            And it mystifies me why it isn't, really.
            I think rents are very far from being constrained by income. As landlords become more selective and the market shrinks, tenants who can pay more are going to have the edge on getting anywhere decent to stay at all. Being able to demonstrate substantial assets is going to become an essential attribute for a prospective tenant. Rental yields are after all much lower in the UK than Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Southern Island, Poland,Denmark, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia. In all of Europe, rental yields are only lower in France, Italy and Austria and possibly Germany .....

            I haven't explored it in London (where I also have some properties) but in this big Northern City here at least a half of the properties up for rent by both small and big "Estate" agents are owned by the agents themselves. And they screw tenants left right and centre. That is where the shift starts. It is highly likely that they will become prominent purchasers of small landlords now selling up.

            .

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              #21
              Originally posted by leaseholder64 View Post
              ....and the only people they will be able to sell to will be owner occupiers, which I think would generally be a good thing.
              This is the biggest fallacy of all -- and one which drives the political thought process. It was started by Maggie, who espoused that a home-owning economy is a good economy. That is fundamentally rubbish. Vibrant economies are mobile economies. They are economies that allow workers to move around the place, rent temporarily, rent out their own homes temporarily, get different employments, get overseas experience and so on.

              Some of the poorest on earth are in predominantly owner occupied housing (Indian subcontinent, South America. most of Africa). The US, Germany etc are societies of young renters.

              Comment


                #22
                Originally posted by leaseholder64 View Post
                Whilst I don't believe the conspiracy theory that the legislation is deliberately favouring such organisations
                I don't think much happens for just one reason, so I don't think the legislation is entirely about this.
                But I'd certainly argue that if the changes didn't support the move from small private landlords to larger more professional supply, it wouldn't happen.

                Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
                I think rents are very far from being constrained by income.
                I'm not trying to be contrary, but surely all expenditure on anything is constrained by income to some degree.
                You've got to eat and clothe yourself, so living space is always a third priority.

                Even excluding a smartphone and broadband from the essentials.

                The US, Germany etc are societies of young renters.
                That's close to where we are, and going to accelerate. People buying in late 30's/40's (or inheriting a home from parents) - renting before that.
                Generation Rent is a real generation.
                When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

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                  #23
                  The benefit of owner occupation tends not so much to be financial, but the quality of the environment. Owner occupiers tend to take pride in their property and the neighbourhood, because they have a long term commitment to it and actually live there.

                  The other issue with owner occupation is likely to old age. I see the current trend to renting as meaning that eventually people will have rely on the state much more in retirement and for long term care, at a time when the state is trying to reduce such expenditure. The equity they would have built up, as owner occupiers is now going to the landlords.

                  Incidentally, my take on Maggie is that she actually destroyed owner occupation, by decimating the social rented sector. She might have wanted to create a nation of owner occupiers, but actually created one of private landlords.

                  Comment


                    #24
                    Originally posted by jpkeates View Post
                    Generation Rent is a real generation.
                    That's right - but they are misidentifying the problem. The (very real) problems they have are NOT that they rent - that is a good thing. The problem is that they are living in a manipulated and bullied rental market where (as in the NHS) the incentives and penalties are irrelevant, and also in a manipulated property market (where property prices have not been allowed to do what they should do via interest rates that benefit those with assets, via money printing, and via a range of ludicrous interventions to incentivise and subsidise ownership that have driven the market).

                    It is naive to attribute the problems to "rent".

                    Comment


                      #25
                      Originally posted by AndrewDod View Post
                      That's right - but they are misidentifying the problem. The (very real) problems they have are NOT that they rent - that is a good thing. The problem is that they are living in a manipulated and bullied rental market where (as in the NHS) the incentives and penalties are irrelevant, and also in a manipulated property market (where property prices have not been allowed to do what they should do via interest rates that benefit those with assets, via money printing, and via a range of ludicrous interventions to incentivise and subsidise ownership that have driven the market).

                      It is naive to attribute the problems to "rent".
                      Totally agree with this.

                      There's an entitled belief that housing is a human right, which is somehow conflated with the idea that a wonderful home with a garden in a nice area for little money is a human right.
                      When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                      Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                      Comment


                        #26
                        Originally posted by leaseholder64 View Post
                        Incidentally, my take on Maggie is that she actually destroyed owner occupation, by decimating the social rented sector. She might have wanted to create a nation of owner occupiers, but actually created one of private landlords.
                        When Mrs T came to power, about half of households rented.
                        Now it's a fifth.

                        She transformed landlords from social housing providers and some rich owners into something that everyone (except local authorities) could do.
                        And, sadly in a lot of cases, everyone has.
                        When I post, I am expressing an opinion - feel free to disagree, I have been wrong before.
                        Please don't act on my suggestions without checking with a grown-up (ideally some kind of expert).

                        Comment


                          #27
                          Originally posted by leaseholder64 View Post
                          The other issue with owner occupation is likely to old age. I see the current trend to renting as meaning that eventually people will have rely on the state much more in retirement and for long term care, at a time when the state is trying to reduce such expenditure. The equity they would have built up, as owner occupiers is now going to the landlords.
                          This is the real issue with long term rent, my mortgage has an end date (well before i retire), if you rent your in real trouble with just the state pension and maybe (if your lucky) some kind of private pension coming in, The kind of low level and low income jobs out there which the current generation seem to have will not be able to support them to pay rent, put what they need to do into a pension and have a life...... on the surface they do what we all do - going out to work, living their lives but its built on a bed of sand with no real asset behind them when they finish work, this will be time-bomb the govt of the day in the future will have to cope with.

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