Future growth predictions!!!

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  • Future growth predictions!!!

    Hi. I would be really interested to hear everyones future growth predicitons. I have done some research, in fact I have done loads of research and although I think these things are impossible to predict I would still be very interested to hear any thoughts.

    The government has said it will be probably printing more money, histroically this has always happened which in turn leads to inflation which eventually has a knock on effect to house prices.

    Although lenders are still very hesitant and still need to re-capitalise and also have a few crisis's to come through I feel eventually prices will rise but how fast and how high is what I am interested in.

    I feel 2 more years and some more QE should help the banks return there balance sheets. Lending will slowly start to increase and as it does banks will get more competetive which will take again a few years, I figure 3-5 more before we see banks get really competetive and this have a knock on effect on the market.

    Banks will begin making money each year and have more to invest but I think they have more problems over the next 2 years first with Libor scandals and IRSA mis selling. Hopefully the government can continue QE without upsetting the balance too much as this will certainly help the banks re-capitalise and begin lending again.

    I see a more cautious boom and a smaller boom around this time 2018-2020. I realise this is a long time but I feel the banks are quite far off allowing this to happen.

    Probably down south may be different but they may face many problems when foriegn money starts to leave! I could of course be completely wrong and not have any clue what I am talking about as I am in no way an expert but would love to hear any predictions!!

  • #2
    I predict that sales of Farrow and Ball paint will plummet in the next few years.
    'Pause you who read this, and think for a moment of the long chain of iron or gold, of thorns or flowers, that would never have bound you, but for the formation fo the first link on one memorable day'. Charles Dickens, Great Expectations


    • #3
      Seems you are too optimistic and swept away by your own presumptions. The last boom ended in 2007 when NRock collapsed and other privatised building societies converted into reckless banks run by former supermarket trained manaagers.


      • #4
        Try to look at it more locally. Is your portfolio in an area that's got a lot of demand? Are your properties well managed and in good shape? Is your yield good? The country may be in the doldrums in certain places, but it's not in others no matter what the papers / politicians say. There is finance and opportunities out there if your business well managed.


        • #5
          Originally posted by Gordon999 View Post
          Seems you are too optimistic and swept away by your own presumptions. The last boom ended in 2007 when NRock collapsed and other privatised building societies converted into reckless banks run by former supermarket trained manaagers.
          Yes Gordon but when will the next one start, 2007 was nearly 6 years ago, surely 5 more years and we will see some movement?


          • #6
            The previous peak in rising property prices was reached in 1989 and subsequently declined for about 10 years to 1997 when Tony Blair and the New Labour Party were elected into running the country.

            !997 was the year when the AST was introduced and many lenders agreed to make mortgage loans for buying BTL properties. Also Some of the previous Building Societies had privatised and introduce more lenders companies for BTL properties. So more buyers entering into the mortgage market and more lenders with the likes of NRock borrowing in the wholesale market and repackaging "the mortgage debt as securities" until the financial crash in 2007. So in late 2008, we saw that famous names like HBOS & A&L had to be taken over by Lloyds TSB and Santander respectively,and some big US banks such as Lehman Bros & Bear Sterns had gone bust. The banking system had to be saved with 120 billion of Govt support .

            The property peak to peak from 1989 to 2007 - some 18 years span. So the next peak may be another 18 years away from 2008.


            • #7
              At last a serious answer with some intelligent comment to back it up. I agree although I think from research I have done is that cycles have tended to get faster over time. I believe this is because of the age we live in and things are pushed faster by things such as QE.

              Additionaly newspapers report things so quickly which helps speed along the process. Although we could all be wrong.


              • #8
                Still think prices need to fall by another 20%.


                • #9
                  Buy having said that there are some great yields available in auctions


                  • #10
                    The Economist Magazine did a survey and thinks UK property prices are 20% overpriced compared to the longterm average.

                    The Econ magazine thinks the countries with underpriced property are Germany, Japan & USA.


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