Do you think Brexit will really hurt us?

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    #16
    I am buying as many as I can. I would urge you to order Fred Harrisons Boom and bust book from Amazon. He is one of the worlds leading authors on property cycles. Brexit will not effect the cycle at all as it is more to do with credit, bank lending, land cycle etc.... Banks are recapitalizing and will lend more and more and more.....this will fuel the cycle. You may not like the risk but your best move is to raise finance on all them houses and buy as many as you can.........you can buy me the drinks after all the cash comes flowing in. Read the book or research the theme. Asking a load of random people on the internet is what silly people do......researching what world leading economists think is something else however

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      #17
      Yup everything I read of Fred Harrison says that now is the time to sell, not the time to extensively leverage. Not quite sure how you derive your conclusion which has pretty much nothing to do with what he has to say.

      And yes too - economists rely exactly on those "silly" people -- not for advice, but as a warning - hence the usual adage - when your taxi driver tells you about the shares he is buying, it's time to sell.

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        #18
        Originally posted by hech123 View Post
        .......................He is one of the worlds leading authors on property cycles..................
        That's like driving a car looking out the rear window, not looking forwards.

        Taxi drivers eh? Got a tip on an 'orse from one: Won £400! (I'll not mention all the other tips that didn't come through...
        I am legally unqualified: If you need to rely on advice check it with a suitable authority - eg a solicitor specialising in landlord/tenant law...

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          #19
          I don't believe there are no risks longer term, most buy with a 75% ltv mortgage, practically max ltv for buy to let. Even a small drop could cause a problem when your fix runs out, I assume your lender will run a indexed valuation and if you are no longer 75% ltv, you're stuck with sub prime or svr. As you've remortgage your existing properties to get the max equity, you have the same problem at remortgage time.

          im having a think for a few months, I have the cash to buy another but rather keep it to see how it goes.

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            #20
            Originally posted by Glover1862 View Post
            most buy with a 75% ltv mortgage,
            ..Source ?..

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              #21
              Thanks to all the replies. I guess there is no definitive answer; some would, some wouldn’t (carrying on investing despite Brexit) - it’s a personal choice.

              I guess the overall theme is that there will always be a demand for renting, so in the long term (I don’t plan to sell at all. I want to build my portfolio to hand over to my children) it will be fine.

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                #22
                I met with a Commercial Bank this morning who are actively involved in lending to Portfolio Investors, during our meeting he indicated that during the last few months there had been a marked increase in the refinancing of properties for the creation of war chests in order to take advantage of low to medium priced properties which they anticipate will come onto the market often from amateur landlords for whom the economics might be proving less attractive to them.
                Time will tell but currently from a personal perspective approximately 75% of enquiries I receive relate to Remortgage rather than for purchases, make of that what you will.

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                  #23
                  Originally posted by loanarranger View Post
                  I met with a Commercial Bank this morning who are actively involved in lending to Portfolio Investors, during our meeting he indicated that during the last few months there had been a marked increase in the refinancing of properties for the creation of war chests in order to take advantage of low to medium priced properties which they anticipate will come onto the market often from amateur landlords for whom the economics might be proving less attractive to them.
                  Time will tell but currently from a personal perspective approximately 75% of enquiries I receive relate to Remortgage rather than for purchases, make of that what you will.

                  I think with the tax rules slowly changing up until 2020 there will be a lot of amateur landlords wanting to sell up as it won’t be financially viable if they can’t offset the mortgage interest.....?

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                    #24
                    I shall probably buy another property this year.

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                      #25
                      Andrew Dod - I am not sure what Fred Harrison book you have been reading, 18 year cycle. 4 years of recovery 2009-2013? followed by two 7 year cycles......2018-2020 is being predicted as the end of the first. The second stage of the cycle is where property goes through the roof traditionally. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on why you think the world is changing and this is not likely to happen. What I see is wages going up, inflation picking up, the economy picking up........I see the largest boom the world has ever seen coming in to fruition......it would be led by AI, driverless vehicles, Genetics, Altfi, Blockchain tech, renewable tech, robotics....to name a few things which are all coming of age. We are heading in to a time like the start of 1999-2000 where you can purchase property that will significantly increase in value.....this could be your last chance to buy in at these levels.

                      Artful - If you do not look at history to predict the future then what do you look at? Both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair brought in Fred Harrison to consult on where the property market was going before the crashes.....He successfully predicted exactly where we were in the market both times and predicted both market crashes several years in advance. I understand most people can not really be bothered to read a book and like to spend 2 minutes researching things online. Is it not obvious we have a credit cycle? Property is the biggest lending asset which relates to credit? Why would there not be a cycle?

                      Lloyds bank (largest UK mortgage lender) end of 2014 - end of 2016.......revenue up around 33%. Profit up 140%. Banks are growing, revenues/profits are growing. Lending becomes more competitive and standards are relaxed. Pretty much what always happens, it is already happening - you just can not see it.

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                        #26
                        so we're in a slightly different situation from most. Currently earning six figures tax free overseas in a stable job in an environment we enjoy with five properties in the UK with no borrowing at all. So far, all our investment has been in property mostly because it's pretty much all we understand and we actually enjoy being landlords. While we could easily pick up another couple of properties in the next two years and then head back to the UK to effectively retire, would that be the best plan? Should we invest elsewhere or should we continue to build the property portfolio? Should we restrict ourselves to the UK? We're at a bit of a crossroads...

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                          #27
                          Artful: new Yougov poll 16.1.18 now 45% think we are right to leave and 44% wrong! See what I mean?! Polls are essentially useless to guage the real mood which I feel is tipping a long way towards leave being correct (mainly due to the behaviour of the EU and their recently disclosed plans for further integration) but I would say that wouldn't I?
                          Unshackled by the chains of idle vanity, A modest manatee, that's me

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                            #28
                            I had a good chat with my father in law (a keen investor - not property though) and he said the biggest worry isn't Brexit, it's Jeremy Corbyn!
                            He said that Corbyn's Labour want to have caps on rents and repeal things like the s21 etc, which is more worrying than Brexit, haha.

                            As my next purchase would require me to have to get a partial mortgage, he think's it would make more sense to wait a year or 2, let the rent build up from the few I already have and then purchase another one outright because if Corbyn gets in and things go tits up, at least I'm not indebted to a bank and have more freedom with the rents etc.

                            Anyone got an opinion on the Labour/Corbyn issue?!

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                              #29
                              Originally posted by RedHitman View Post


                              I think with the tax rules slowly changing up until 2020 there will be a lot of amateur landlords wanting to sell up as it won’t be financially viable if they can’t offset the mortgage interest.....?
                              But you will be able to offset your mortgage interest after 2020!!

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                                #30
                                Originally posted by amazondean View Post

                                But you will be able to offset your mortgage interest after 2020!!
                                Don’t you mean ‘won’t’....?

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